Iraq: any hope at all?

The situation in Iraq is still unstable, law and order have not been restored, suicide attacks and car bombs are on the increase, two major insurgencies have not yet been put down, Spanish troops are to leave the country and some British and American troops have been accused of torturing and humiliating Iraqi prisoners. It all sounds very negative and many people in the West have given up any hope of Iraq returning to normality.

While the situation is still very fluid and things have gone terribly wrong in Iraq - partly due to mistakes by the coalition forces, I believe that not all is lost and with increased determination, a lot of patience and some strategic changes (and a lot of luck), things could eventually improve.

We can argue until we are blue in the face about whether the Americans and their allies were right to invade Iraq and topple Saddam's regime - after all, no weapons of mass destruction have ever been found in Iraq and the United Nations never approved the military intervention in that country - but what good will that do now? Surely the priority today should be the stability of Iraq, a return to normality and the introduction of democracy in the country - however difficult these goals are to achieve. Having said that, however, there are many lessons to be learnt by the lack of planning on the part of the allies for post-Saddam Iraq - certainly many of the so-called experts on Iraq got it terribly wrong.

The French and Germans, who opposed the war, have been proved right in many ways: tensions with the Muslim world and terrorism have increased and many Iraqis are beginning to look at the Americans as foreign occupiers and not liberators. However, this does not mean that all is lost.

The handover of authority by the coalition forces to a sovereign Iraqi government is due to take place by July. It is important that this is completed on time. Naturally, it is essential that the coalition forces remain in Iraq as long as necessary to stabilise the situation but it is equally important that Iraqis are given the right to govern themselves and later on, to elect their representatives in a fair and free election.

One of the biggest mistakes committed by the Americans - and I have mentioned this time and again, was to dismiss the entire Iraqi army soon after Saddam Hussein's regime was toppled. This was not only wrong - it was utter folly. In such a volatile situation the worst thing that could have been done was to allow 400,000 armed, angry and unemployed soldiers on to the streets of Iraq. Many of these have no doubt resorted to terrorism, along with other remnants of the former Baath regime as well as members of Al-Qaeda.

Their dismissal was wrong for two reasons: the Iraqi army (not the Republican Guard) has a proud history going back well before the Baath Party took power in the 1960s and was an institution that was respected by the majority of the people. Many Iraqi soldiers in fact resented the interference of the Baathists in the running of military affairs. Secondly, the allies needed the army on their side in order to ensure law and order and an element of continuity.

It seems that the Americans have learnt their lesson and have now not only drafted back former Iraqi soldiers into a security force but have also reinstated a former Iraqi army general with a history of standing up to Saddam Hussein. The general is leading an Iraqi force to try and get the Sunni stronghold of Falluja back under coalition control. This is certainly a good move and will hopefully prove worthwhile. The Americans should definitely continue with this trend.

Military restraint is also necessary. The Americans have committed too many blunders in trying to retake cities occupied by insurgents, such as Falluja and the holy Shi'ite city of Najaf. Going in with such decisive force achieved nothing - there were simply too many civilian casualties, making the allies even more unpopular. As I write this article American forces are pounding the city of Najaf to wrest control from the cleric Moqtader al-Sadr. While Al-Sadr is bad news for Iraq I am very concerned that such heavy use of force will ignite the Shi'ites against the Americans and cause outrage in the Muslim world.

Finally I cannot ignore the very serious allegations of torture and humiliation by US troops against Iraqi prisoners. These photographs that appeared in the international media were disgusting and will not win over the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people. This is a public relations disaster. Of course, no army is perfect and the US military has promised to punish those responsible. President Bush has apologised, and rightly so, but more needs to be done.

The President now has the perfect opportunity to sack Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. While Mr Rumsfeld masterminded a brilliant strategy to topple Saddam Hussein, he failed miserably to plan for post-war Iraq and to provide security. He blundered too many times. This latest abuse of detainees is the last straw. Mr Rumsfeld should go. His departure would signal a new approach to the Iraqi situation.