Greek Cypriots set to reject Annan plan despite pressures

The reunification of Cyprus remains in the balance, despite promises of international aid at a pre-donors' conference in Brussels on Thursday and continuing pressures on Greek Cypriots to approve the UN-brokered "Annan plan" at simultaneous referenda scheduled for next Saturday.

Rumours persist of a last-minute postponement of the vote which the UN Secretary General said he could consider, if all sides agreed. But so far it is strongly opposed by Turkey, the US and the EU.

Defying the call for a No vote by the self-styled Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus 'President' Rauf Denktash, 40,000 Turkish Cypriots demonstrated last week in favour of the plan. However, Denktash warned Turkey's national assembly on Thursday that the plan would mean the end of Turkish Cyprus in the long run, adding that he would refuse to sign the referendum law.

The leading Greek Cypriot political party, AKEL, while supporting the plan, formally called for a six-month postponement to give voters more time to study the 220-page 'Foundation Agreement', flanked by 9,000 pages of annexes.

If a postponement is denied, AKEL will call for a No vote. While the second largest Greek Cypriot Party, DISY, has declared support, the most recent poll indicates that 78% of Greek Cypriots voters will reject the Annan plan.

Further to his appeal for a 'resounding No', Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos spurned an invitation to the high-level EC aid conference, sending two civil servants to represent him. At the conference, attended by the TRNC's 'Prime Minister', the US offered $400 million, the UK $37million and the EU $311 million for post-reunification reconstruction/resettlement costs in the impoverished Turkish sector.

The European Commissioner for Enlargement, Gunther Verheugen, stated that "a first need assessment shows that the international community should contribute two billion euros over... five years. I am convinced that the international community will be able to organise the money that is needed."

However, Turkish sources indicate that total costs would reach $3.8 billion, while the Greek Cypriots estimate they will exceed $13 billion.

Mr Verheugen also hinted at a new deal for the TRNC should the referenda fail which might include both direct financial aid and the lifting of the 30-year trade embargo. The US shares this approach.

On Friday, UN Security Council members also pledged full support for a reunified Cyprus and a new mandate for the UN peacekeeping force there.

After reportedly heavy US and EU pressures, the Greek Prime Minister, Costas Karamanlis, finally gave lukewarm approval to the UN plan, indicating that the positive elements outweighed the negative, but without actually urging the Greek Cypriot government to reverse its stand and campaign for a Yes vote.

Attending an EU foreign ministers' meeting on Friday in Tullamore, Ireland, the Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister, George Iacovou, played down talk of an international backlash if his compatriots voted No next Saturday.

Denying that Saturday's referenda are the 'last chance' for a settlement, both Greece and Cyprus are seen hoping for a better deal from resumed negotiations once the Republic of Cyprus joins the EU on May 1.