Prospects for united Cyprus fade

Prospects For a united Cyprus entering the EU on May 1 are increasingly uncertain, after UN-hosted high-level talks ended without agreement on Wednesday in Burgenstock, Switzerland .

The talks were attended by Greece, Turkey and leaders of the Cyprus Republic and the Turkish-occupied sector.

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's fifth and final draft of a plan for a new United Cyprus Republic issued on Wednesday evening was supported by the Turkish side, although the Turkish Cypriot president Rauf Denktash had boycotted the talks. But it was not endorsed by either Greece or Cyprus government.

So on April 24, just one week before EU enlargement, Greek and Turkish Cypriots will vote in simultaneous referenda on Mr Annan's 220-page proposal for a new federal United Cyprus Republic comprising two ethnically-based 'constituent states', with 7% of Turkish-controlled territory returned to the Greek Cypriot state.

But unless major Greek Cypriot political parties formally call for a Yes vote, the No vote could prevail, according to recent opinion polls. In contrast, a Yes majority seems more probable in the Turkish sector, despite conflicting views of the main parties there.

Pre-empting huge international pressures to push a Yes vote, the Greek Cypriot President, Tassos Papadopoulos, made a tough statement immediately after his return on Thursday. "The National Council (of party political leaders) and I made every effort... to achieve a solution... (to) allow Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots to live peacefully and in security, and share the benefits... from the accession of a reunited Cyprus to the EU," he said.

(However) "Not only did the negative stance and intransigent positions of the Turkish Cypriot side continue throughout the process but 11 new additional demands were added by Turkey, with a main aim to serve largely the interests and aims of Turkey through Cyprus, and which through the mediation of the UN Secretary General found response either fully or to some degree."

After yesterday's meeting of the National Council which took no formal position, Mr. Papadopoulos stated that "we will decide, judging all conditions, all facts and certainly taking into account the consequences of a Yes or No."

Meanwhile, Kofi Annan, Tony Blair, Gerhard Schröder, European Commissioner Gunther Verheugen and Colin Powell have made strong calls for a Yes vote for this 'last chance' plan. While not a formal condition to allowing Turkey to initiate EU accession negotiations, a settlement of the Cyprus problem would greatly enhance prospects - as and when Turkey also conforms to EU's 'Copenhagen criteria' for democracy, human rights and the rule of law required of countries seeking membership.

To boost chances of a Yes vote, the European Commission will convene a 'pre-donor' conference in Brussels on April 15. Some 60 countries, including Turkey, as well as international financial institutions will indicate offers of financial assistance for reunification costs - which could cost over €7 billion.

If the Greek Cypriots vote No, Cyprus - the entire island - will enter the EU on May 1, but its acquis communautaire will not be applied in the occupied sector. Between 2004 and 2006, Cyprus (excluding the northern sector) will receive €666 million in EU funds.

However, full EU citizens' rights will be enjoyed by at least 60,000 Turkish Cypriots who have applied for and obtained Cyprus passports since Mr Denktash reopened the border in April 2003 at a series of check points along the 180-km long UN-administered buffer zone. The opening came after Greece's signature of the EU accession act as well as a number of major demonstrations by Turkish Cypriots demanding a settlement.

Some 10,000 Turkish Cypriots now cross daily to jobs in the Greek sector, and some three million crossings have taken place in both directions since the opening. There are also growing links between professional and cultural groups, business people, trade unions and political parties.

"A No vote will not mean Cyprus no longer wants a solution", Ambassador Erato Marcoullis, director of Political Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told The Sunday Times in an interview here. "Nor do we agree that the referendum is the 'last chance' for a united Cyprus to enter the EU. According to international law, Cyprus can be succeeded as an EU member by a new United Cyprus Republic at any time.

"The delicate balance of the previous Annan plans was upset under the latest text. We remain unhappy about the provisions for indefinite Turkish military presence in the north, making us the only EU state occupied by another European country. We are also unhappy about the undermining of EU law by derogations, restrictive provisions for the return of Greek Cypriots to the north, as well as property questions".