Fewer babies: Why?

In modern demographic literature, the name of Dutch sociologist and demographer Dirk Van de Kaa is associated with the theory of the second demographic transition. Together with other social demographers like Arias and Lesthaeghe, he tried to explain the motives behind the further declines in fertility that were observed in the more developed countries of western Europe and, thus, understand better contemporary demographic change.

In most countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) - the average number of children women were having during their reproductive life - was well below 2.1. This index is considered as a sort of threshold for a population to replace itself.

It was argued that the transition from high to low mortality and fertility rates that had been observed in the first half of the last century and in several cases well before, for example in France and the United Kingdom, had been primarily motivated by the desire of parents to be able to provide the best social and economic conditions for their family. Their main objective was to extend the most advantageous educational environment for their children. Hence, the decision to have a small family was in a sense "child-oriented".

In the 1980s, different motives for opting for a small family were being observed. More and more women were academically qualified and aspired to managerial positions of all sorts. The couples' desire for self-satisfaction and fulfilment, within an expanding consumer-oriented environment, was considered the principal motives behind the behavioural change in family size.

In contrast to the objectives behind the fertility decline described in my last article (February19), the further drop in fertility could be considered as "self-oriented". Hence the increase in abortions (legal or otherwise), voluntary childlessness, consensual unions and the general use of contraceptives. The concept of a second demographic transition provides an interesting hypothesis in relating gradual but visible changes in values and motives towards a smaller family.

In Malta, one may already observe some fundamental changes in traditional values as more and more couples are opting for a small family either through postponement of births that brings in its wake a drop in fertility as women in older age brackets become less fertile or are simply unwilling to have a second child. In many instances, besides economic considerations, the prospect of an additional child strongly competes with other pursuits such as more leisure time and other personality and cultural standards.

One may or may not agree that the motives described above could be associated with the real causes of the recent declines in fertility observed in Malta during the past years. The accompanying graph shows the decline in the total fertility rate since 1975. At that time, the TFR stood at 2.17 and until the early 1990s hovered around the population replacement level of 2.1. Thereafter, it started to register notable drops. In 1995, it came down to 1.83 and has since continued on a downward trend.

It is usual for declines in TFR to be recorded over a number of years. In our case, a dramatic fall in the TFR was experienced during the last three years - from 1.69 in 2000 to 1.46 in 2002.

However, on observation of the experiences of other countries, there could also be the possibility of an eventual increase in the TFR in future. The table below presents examples of countries where the TFR, after falling to very low levels, resumed an upward trend. Partly on the basis of such experiences, and partly on account of the introduction of certain measures referred to later on, it is possible that Malta's TFR will eventually increase. Provisional data for 2003 indicate that there has been a small increase in the number of births compared to the previous year.

To the countries mentioned in the table below, one may add Portugal where the TFR touched a low of 1.40 in 1995 but rose to 1.52 in 2000. The same development was evident in Spain. In 1998, the TRF stood at 1.16. This went up to 1.24 in 2001.

What are the possibilities that local economic and social factors will be instrumental in encouraging women to have more children? Will the 3.5 person family observed since the 1995 census remain as Malta's modal family size?

Answers to such hypothetical questions are difficult to provide except for the immediate future and subject to a number of reservations. Present circumstances and likely socio-economic developments may only be indicative in such cases. An examination of births by different age cohorts for the past five years suggests that the drop in fertility was mainly due to the smaller number of births in the childbearing sub-groups and not to the postponement of births that was visible during the 1980s and the early 1990s. The relationship between higher education of women, the labour participation of females, as well as the changing role of women in Maltese society have been clearly manifested as factors contributing to postponements of births during these years.

Moreover, it is also a fact that the labour participation rate of Maltese women is still the lowest in Europe so that as more labour opportunities are created in our expanding services sectors, more and more women may enter the labour market. But very few facilities exist for allowing mothers to leave their children at play centres while they are at work. There is no doubt that Malta lags well behind other countries in the provision of childcare facilities. Studies have demonstrated that such facilities are taken into account by working women in deciding on the number and timing of births.

On the other hand, it is government policy to encourage more women to enter the labour market, introduce flexible working hours on a wider scale and establish, in future, childcare centres adjacent to places of work so that working mothers may leave their children while at work. So one cannot rule out that, in the long term, the implementation of these policies may cause some reversal to the present fertility trend.

Of course, only time will tell!

Country TFR in TFR in 1985 2000 Luxembourg 1.38 1.79 Denmark 1.45 1.77 Norway 1.68 1.85 Finland 1.64 1.73 The Netherlands 1.51 1.72 Iceland 1.95 2.08 Source: Council of Europe demographic yearbook-2000

Mr Camilleri is chairman of the Malta Statistics Authority.