Bombs may be new chapter in deadly ETA separatism

If yesterday's bombings in Madrid are the work of ETA, they signal a drastic departure for separatist guerillas many Spaniards had thought were close to spent.

The commuter train attacks killed at least 190 people and bore few of the hallmarks of the Basque guerillas - except for the timing just three days before a general election - but Spain is convinced they are to blame.

Since it began fighting in 1968 for a separate Basque state in northern Spain and southwestern France, ETA had killed nearly 850 people, but no single attack brought such carnage and they usually gave warnings to save civilians.

In 1987 ETA apologised for killing 21 shoppers in a Barcelona supermarket, the group's bloodiest bombing.

In recent years Spain had been arresting more and more ETA suspects and fatalities were easing - from 23 in 2000 to three last year. For many in Madrid, ETA was on the ropes.

Then came yesterday's killings, aimed right at civilians, with no warning given.

An act of desperation, perhaps, to prove they were still a force to be reckoned with?

"This is clearly an attempt to make a point just ahead of the elections. They had to do something to prove their vitality, their existence," said Jean Chalvidant, an expert on ETA at France's Institute of Criminology.

Another analyst suggested al Qaeda's attacks on New York and Washington in 2001 had caused a kind of global terror inflation.

"Since September 11, there has been a qualitative leap. Small attacks are no longer adequate. They (ETA) have to aim higher to have influence," said Manuel Coma, a security expert at Spain's Royal Elcano Institute, a think tank.

Experts said sustained pressure from Spanish and French police, who have arrested 650 ETA suspects or helpers since 2000, had reduced ETA to a hard-pressed core.

"ETA usually issued warnings to police and the public about bombs they had placed and where. This sort of warning apparently was not made today," Rolf Tophoven, head of the Institute for Terrorism Research and Security Policy in Germany, told Germany's N-TV network.

"This suggests ETA has changed its tactical modus operandi in its actions against the Spanish government, that it's going in a new direction. It is precisely the dimension of the attack today that could be a sign of new tactics from ETA, to kill larger numbers of people and injure hundreds."

Police said in December they had foiled a similar plot by ETA suspects to detonate bombs on two trains leaving Madrid.

Spain might now reassess how it deals with ETA and Basque separatism, if the attacks show the failure of a policy it thought was working.

The right-of-centre Popular Party government, which goes into Sunday's election as favourite for a third term, has made dismantling ETA a top priority and seemed to be making ground - thanks to the arrests, improved intelligence and the 2002 banning of ETA's suspected political wing, Batasuna.

Madrid used tough policing and refused to negotiate with ETA or concede any more home rule as non-violent Basque nationalists demand.

These nationalists say there is no way to beat ETA without a political solution. Regional autonomy is a key election issue.

Madrid's chief enforcer of anti-ETA laws in the Basque Country had been sure ETA, listed as a terrorist group by the United States and European Union, could be defeated.

"Thanks to sustained action from the rule of law and all of the state's powers, ETA is on the ropes and this is the way to end terror," Carlos Urquijo said before yesterday's attacks.

Richard Evans, editor of Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, said ETA was technically capable of yesterday's bombings but with Spain a key US ally in the Iraq war, Islamic militants could not be ruled out.

"If it is ETA, it is a horrible own goal... it is a major escalation," he told Reuters in London.

Some Basques suggested ETA's recent declaration of a ceasefire limited to another region, Catalonia, was a sign of weakness and that it was seeking to negotiate a solution.

But the leader of now banned Batasuna, which won 10 per cent of the vote in the 2001 Basque parliamentary elections, says ETA will not disappear no matter how hard Madrid tries to crush it.

"History teaches us that if the conflict is not resolved, there can be periods without armed resistance, but in the end it always comes back," Arnaldo Otegi said after a recent march.

Reactions and comments

Following are some reactions from leaders and experts to the deaths in yesterday's bombings in Madrid.

"It is absolutely clear that the terrorist organisation ETA was seeking an attack with wide repercussions." - Angel Acebes, Spanish Interior Minister

"We don't have ETA claiming these attacks but (they) bear its signatures... ETA is aiming at disrupting democracy in Spain. Terrorism is always aiming at undermining our principles and values and our ability to live peacefully in democracy." - Ana Palacio, Spanish Foreign Minister

"Terrorism has once again shown it is prepared deliberately to stop at nothing in creating human victims... An end must be put to this. As never before, it is vital to unite forces of the entire world community against terror." - Vladimir Putin, Russian President

"Every European, every democratic person, has to condemn these people who wanted to interfere with an electoral campaign, producing suffering for hundreds of people, leaving families broken, without any objective." - Javier Solana, EU Foreign Policy Chief

"This terrible attack underlines the threat that we all continue to face from terrorism in many countries and why we all must work together internationally to safeguard our peoples against such attacks and defeat terrorism". - Tony Blair, British Prime Minister

"These irresponsible acts, which cannot have any justification whatsoever, are to be fully condemned." - Jacques Chirac, French President

"The Pope wishes to reiterate his firm and absolute abhorrence of such unjustifiable acts that offend God and violate the fundamental right to life." - Pope John Paul

"This is not a political act, it is a criminal act against defenceless people, a perverse action of terrorists." - Romano Prodi, European Commission President

"I was saddened and outraged by the news of the terrible attacks in Madrid this morning. I am horrified at the large number of dead and injured." - Gerhard Schroeder, German Chancellor

"The timing of the bombings was clearly designed to wreak the greatest level of havoc and carnage. They are an attack on the democratic process and cannot be justified." - Bertie Ahern, Irish Prime Minister