SWOT and Dr Gonzi

Hail to the new leader. And the Nationalist councillors and supporters who packed the party HQ certainly did that on Saturday night. The rapturous roars that greeted the final counting were of the type associated with general elections and the downing of the opposite partisans, rather than celebrations at a family affair. It was most unGonzilike. And yet, the unrestrained euphoria of Lawrence Gonzi and the joy of his supporters were understandable human reactions.

It is not every night that a person becomes simultaneously leader of a major party and prime minister (in a few weeks). It is just as natural for the country at large to view him more closely and critically. To the victor the spoils, yes, but the country can be nobody's trophy.

The PN councillors quite clearly saw Dr Gonzi as the party's hope to run the government in such a way as to win it the next general election. How shall he measure up to the tasks he will be thinking about in the cold, sobering dawn of his time at the helm of the national responsibilities he will be assuming? An outline of his perceived strength and weaknesses, opportunities and threats could provide some early insight.

Dr Gonzi's political strengths include a success story, so far. Though he was not elected to parliament at his first attempt, as Speaker of the House he gained the respect of all and sundry. (Alongside that he continued to take an active and passionate interest in the welfare of persons with a disability and his critical public analysis of public policy in that regard pulled no punches.)

He returned to politics, was elected in the difficult Cottonera constituency, and rapidly shot to the top echelons of his party, which had been beaten into opposition. Labour's troubles and the return of the PN to power in 1998 propelled him to the number two position in his party, and the Cabinet. He is younger than the opposition leader. At the general election he will be 54 years old to Alfred Sant's 60. He will also carry along the experience of almost five-and-a-half years as a senior minister and over a further four as prime minister, against Dr Sant's 22 months in the latter post.

Dr Gonzi's weaknesses begin with a nagging reputation that he is not decisive enough. He brushes that aside, but he cannot do so to the fact that his only ministerial experience, as well as main interest, has been in the social sector. His role in the discussions and negotiations broadened that somewhat by touching industrial relations and economic policy. But there is a preparations gap. As PM he will have to demonstrate that he has the apparatus of the mind to be able to bridge it.

The threats to him include the time it will take to smooth feathers ruffled in the leadership contest. The contest for the deputy leadership could ruffle more feathers, as it sees in another younger-generation contender (say Tonio Borg). The onslaught that will now commence from the Labour Party is another threat-in-waiting, as is the state of the economy, which cries for recognition, new analysis and fresh ideas and energy.

Dr Gonzi's major threat is encapsulated in the figure and future of the outgoing leader. He will have a tremendous task to live up to expectations, and he will threaten himself all the more if he really develops into an Eddie-look-alike. There is no such substitute for any original; only a real alternative can work.

Dr Fenech Adami's future will be a threat to Dr Gonzi were he to stay on as an MP, or if he accepts to become president in four weeks time. Dr Fenech Adami will surely leave the House, but apparently has not yet decided to resist calls to become president. If he does accept that would fuel fresh deep political division and also leave Dr Gonzi in the position of having as head of state the man who some will continue to hold has made him.

What of the opportunities? They lie in mobilising the dynamics of change. Same government, yes - but not the same old crew to a man and lady. Dr Gonzi can present a restructured cabinet, as John Dalli more than hinted that he would have done. That would not be sufficient to ensure that things start to be done tangibly better, and that the prevailing dark mood begins to lift. But a far-reaching Cabinet review is painfully necessary.

It is also manifestly important to begin to do politics in a less partisan and divisive sort of way. That would be difficult, which is why this particular opportunity to do it comes at a timely moment in time.

This SWOT analysis suggests Lawrence Gonzi can start with a net balance in his favour in how to confront the situation he has inherited and to try to move the country forward. Will he show that he possesses the technique of thinking to capitalise on that?