Greek, not Turkish, Cypriots might block unity

The United Nations race for a Cyprus peace deal could end with the ultimate irony of rejection by Greek Cypriots who have long believed they held the moral high ground on reunification.

For years, the international community has viewed the Turkish Cypriot side as the one dragging its feet on a deal to reunite the island, divided since 1974.

But diplomats with a finger on Cypriot sentiment on both sides of the border are genuinely worried that what has been billed as the best chance yet to settle the problem could founder on Greek Cypriot opposition, or just apathy.

Under the plan, Greek and Turkish Cypriots started last week on a final negotiating path that should lead to parallel referendums of the two communities on April 21.

"If you had asked me a year ago how the (Greek Cypriot) public felt I would say it would pass, very easily. Now I am not so sure," a senior diplomat based on the island told Reuters.

But he said the deal should have an "easy ride" among Turkish Cypriots desperate to shake off the isolation of sanctions that have hobbled their economy in the north and kept it far poorer than the internationally recognised south.

A poll last week suggested 61 per cent of Greek Cypriots would reject the plan in a referendum. One published yesterday by Politis newspaper showed 40 per cent against it, 31 in favour and the remaining 29 per cent undecided.

The proposals are designed to usher a united island into the European Union on May 1. EU accession by itself is change enough, but reunification too is overwhelming, analysts say.

"They are in denial," said Yiangos Mikkelides, a pro-plan Greek Cypriot psychiatrist. "They have their homes, the nice cars and then this happens. It's the fear of change."

Greek Cypriot opponents of the plan have attacked it for imposing limits on people's rights to return to homes they fled in 1974, when Turkey invaded the north of the island after a Greek Cypriot coup backed by the military then ruling Greece.

The Turkish occupation cemented the division of Cyprus and caused massive displacement of Cypriots in both directions.

"This plan is a disaster... We are effectively being forced to negotiate at gunpoint," said Marios Matsakis, a deputy of the Greek Cypriot centrist Democratic Party.

A year after the UN plan first appeared, Greek Cypriot officials say it is still being translated into Greek.

Real information is limited to high-brow television chat shows, campaigners with a "no" agenda and a very small number of non-governmental organisations.

In the north, the plan has been getting blanket coverage. Greek Cypriot spokesman Kypros Chrysostomides says those who want information now can read it in English, widely understood in the former British colony. "The general lines of the plan are known, it's been discussed for a year," he said.

But public demand for credible information since the negotiations started last Thursday suggests otherwise.

"The devil is in the detail, and that is why people should read it," said a Western diplomat.

The Cyprus branch of the Oslo-based International Peace Research Institute, which published simplified versions of the plan in Greek, Turkish and English last October, has been swamped with calls from Greek Cypriots in the past week.

Copies in Turkish ran out by mid-November, ahead of December polls widely seen as a referendum on reunification.

The election to the Turkish Cypriot parliament ended in a dead heat between parties for and against the UN plan, although pro-deal voters were in a slight majority.