Prospects for 2004

2004 will see the paradoxical nature of post-Cold War international relations become more clearly defined. Efforts to cope with sources of insecurity, such as the global war on terror, are likely to be matched by peace initiatives in regions such as the Middle East and the Korean peninsula.

2004 will see the European Union become an even more effective global actor despite its failure to adopt a Constitution. America's foreign policy agenda will focus on regional pockets of instability as the world's only superpower continues to adjust to the role of global policeman that it has inherited since the demise of the Soviet Union. The trans-Atlantic relationship, and by extension the American electoral campaign, together with developments in the Middle East, will dominate geo-strategic relations in the year ahead.

2004 will witness a complete transformation of regional relations in Europe under the watch of the incoming Irish and Dutch EU Presidencies. The admission of ten new member states into the EU, including Malta, will see the emergence of a different geo-political EU for a number of reasons.

First, the EU has taken a series of important decisions in the field of security. The agreement to undertake limited military operations outside NATO will enable the EU to start planning more coherently its future defence policy. The agreement on a new security strategy will also strengthen the EU's common foreign and security policy framework and allow the EU to formulate more constructive external relations objectives with allies such as the United States. The agreement on "open skies" will boost the effectiveness of European air control and reduce delays on intra-European air transport.

Second, the EU will consist of 25 member states as of May 1. The enlargement process will thus continue as envisaged, with Bulgaria and Romania joining in 2007. Croatia is bound to follow suit and Macedonia intends to submit its membership application next month. In the autumn the EU Commission will decide whether to recommend the opening of accession negotiations with Turkey.

Third, the Nice Treaty is likely to be the EU's constitutional basis until 2007. Even if work on a new Constitution is completed this year it will probably take another two years for the ratification process to be completed. The current EU decision-making structures with a dominance of unanimity will continue to function. Where qualified majority is foreseen the Council will require 72 per cent of the votes to adopt a proposal.

Discussion on the EU's budget for 2007-2013 will also begin in earnest. One should expect a great deal of haggling when it comes to the volume and geographical distribution of funds as it appears that future budget expenditures will be closer to 1 per cent of GDP than the present constitutional ceiling of 1.24 per cent.

Changes in the nature of the EU will be mirrored by changes due to take place in NATO. In 2004 the trans-Atlantic political and military alliance will expand from 19 to 26 member states. All strategic eyes will be watching to see whether NATO starts to play an even more effective security role outside of Europe with possible deployment in adjacent regions such as in the Middle East.

2004 is an election year in the US, with the Presidential election (and those for the House of Representatives and some Senate seats and governorships) scheduled to take place on the first Tuesday of November (November 2).

Later this month the first in a series of primaries will take place to determine who will challenge George. W. Bush for the White House. Although Bush's re-election chances have received a boost with the capture of Saddam Hussein, a downturn in the American economy could still upset his re-election bid. Expect an emphasis on Bush's vision of compassionate conservatism in both domestic and foreign policy making in the months ahead as the Republicans seek to mend fences with supporters and foes at home and abroad.

A more compassionate American foreign policy is likely to include a new effort to bring the protagonists in the Middle East to the peace table. The stalled road-map peace initiative and the more recently unveiled Geneva Accords contain the variables that could secure a permanent peace settlement in the Middle East if Israel and the Palestinian Authority could be convinced to compromise.

The US is the only actor that can lead in this effort. The EU, the UN and NATO can also play supportive roles in such an initiative. Failure to secure peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians will leave the Middle East hostage to instability and undermine all efforts to eliminate movements of terror around the world.

Dr Stephen C. Calleya, international relations analyst, extends his very best wishes for 2004 to all Sunday Times readers.