Who will make history in 2004 by becoming the Malta-nominated EU commissioner? The government has apparently narrowed the field of choice to three male candidates - two ministers and the PM's personal assistant. If so it did not allow imagination to run riot. Yet, who knows; the short list may get short shrift.
The leading contender is the foreign minister, Joe Borg. What he does not know about the EU structures and their machinations is not worth guessing about. During Malta's accession negotiations he built up a large web of political and bureaucratic contacts. A number of the latter will no longer be in Brussels once a new commission is appointed and politicians have even more uncertain tenure. Still, the connectivity fabric, once woven, does not unravel easily. Dr Borg is also affable and persuasive.
He would wear a commissioner's mantle well. But... does he really want it? With years ahead of active politics ahead of him, including the coming four trying to make membership work for Malta, with the possibility that he could be the dark horse in the Nationalist Party leadership race, why should he bow out of politics so early? To do so with the possibility of returning to the fray some day, as Romano Prodi could do next year, does not offer the same prospects.
What, then, of the other main option from within the Cabinet? I was dismissive when John Dalli was confidently touted to me as very likely but his name continues to come up with insistence. He has the stature and he would rapidly build upon and add to the contacts he has established as Malta's longest serving finance minister. But again, would he really want it? He is a main contender for the PN leadership. If he did not get that, and Dr Borg went to Brussels, he would probably become foreign minister. The question being asked is: What happens if Dr Borg stayed put? Mr Dalli would probably not wish to remain at finance much longer. Becoming commissioner could be the only way forward. Yes, but - one should think - not necessarily up, though definitely out. Out of politics and out of Malta: Would Mr Dalli really see that as an appealing option?
Richard Cachia Caruana, the premier's personal assistant, could find the prize falling into his lap. He is prepared for it. He immersed himself in the accession negotiations and mastered EU complexities. He has built contacts. He has the toughness required by a commissioner's role - members of Nationalist cabinets since 1987 testify to that. Such testimony, in fact, can be a back-handed compliment that works to his advantage. Not a few might prefer him to be away from the PM's side and away from Malta.
Appointing him as Malta's political representative in Brussels, subject to not remaining PA to the PM, would be one way of doing it. Sending him off as commissioner would be a surer way to cut him from base. Not all Nationalists with a finger on the lever may agree, including a few who will anticipate strong resistance from the Labour opposition.
This is where imagination could come in. Joanna Drake should be seen as prime candidate. Not because of her gender - she is an acknowledged leading expert on the EU. George Vella, the former deputy leader of the Labour Party would be the boldest choice. Up front in Labour's opposition to membership, he never uttered anything silly in the process. And, both as shadow foreign minister for nine years and actually doing the job for two (1996-98) he earned respect in Brussels and the chanceries of EU countries as a valid proponent of his party and government's views.
He spurned the mantra that membership was only a hypothesis and he would not discuss it, that Labour would win and Malta would stay out. Throughout he held that if the majority democratically opted for accession he would not quarrel with that.
Here is a chance for a political breakthrough. One that can be made with a worthy nominee and good sense, rather than for the sake of expediency. I have no idea whether Dr Vella would be interested. But that is also a chance for the prime minister to be big and find out.