Latvia facing cliffhanger EU membership vote

Latvia faces a cliffhanger vote on Saturday when it becomes the last of 10 countries to decide whether to join the 15-nation European Union, analysts said yesterday.

Attention turned to wary Latvia after its Baltic neighbour Estonia voted overwhelmingly to join the wealthy bloc in a weekend referendum, prompting some commentators to predict a domino effect in Saturday's ballot.

"Latvian support for the EU is barely over the 50-per cent mark at the moment, so we could be heading for a very close race," Baltic political expert Artis Pabriks said.

"I think the Estonian 'Yes' will give the Latvian pro-EU campaign a boost," he added.

The latest opinion poll has shown a quarter of voters in the small ex-Soviet republic are still undecided, with 51.3 per cent in favour of EU membership and 23.8 per cent against.

Latvia is the last of 10 countries invited to join the EU next May to hold a membership referendum. The nine other countries have said yes to joining. A "No" would end the bloc's historic enlargement from 15 to 25 members on a sour note.

Sunday's resounding Estonian "Yes" was good news for Brussels after Swedes voted against joining the single European currency in a referendum on the same day.

With all votes counted from Estonia's ballot, the "Yes" camp had 66.9 per cent with the "No" camp trailing at 33.1 per cent. Turnout was 63 per cent.

"Welcome and congratulations Estonia," European Commission President Romano Prodi said in a statement yesterday.

"In the dark days of its history, Estonia experienced firsthand what the Iron Curtain did to Europe. Now it can harvest the fruits of a united Europe," he said.

Even before the Estonian pro-EU camp had declared victory - crowing the country's break with its Soviet past - Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga was urging voters to say "Yes".

"I think the Estonian vote will influence the Latvians to vote 'Yes'," she told Reuters. "Now it's Latvia's time to conclude the Baltic way that started 12 years ago with our independence."

Malta, Slovenia, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Estonia have all held ballots to join the EU. Cyprus will also join but is not holding a referendum.

Latvia, one of the poorest of the 10 accession counties, has seen a step rise in economic growth over the last years and posted a 6.1 per cent rise in GDP last year.

But huge differences between rich and poor remains a problem in the country and ethnicity continues to be a sensitive issue due to the large Russian minority of almost one-third of the population, who settled in Soviet times.

Latvia's political and economic elite is united in the pro-EU drive, arguing that EU entry would boost the economy, create jobs and raise living standards in the country, which regained independence in 1991.

But many people are suspicious of entering the EU little more than a decade after quitting the Soviet Union, saying Brussels is too remote to care for the interests of a small nation of 2.4 million people.

Analysts say a limp campaign focusing on the wallet rather than values has failed to stir any enthusiasm.

They say a government brawl over next year's state budget has also harmed the "Yes" campaign and voters could say "No" in protest at the staunchly pro-EU ruling coalition.

Pabriks said the pro-EU camp will likely play the emotional card in the last days of campaigning, highlighting Latvia's break with Moscow's harsh rule and arguing that EU entry would guarantee independence.

"It's a question of whether we pass the exam of the university we entered in 1991," he said.