The ebb and flow of the marine foresight pilot project

Ever since its successful launch three months ago, the Marine Foresight Pilot Project has picked up momentum and a number of initiatives within the project have been launched. The project is conducted as part of the EU-funded eFORESEE initiative that is steered by the Malta Council for Science and Technology (MCST).

With a coastline of 272 kilometres, a marine territory which is 20 times the size of the land territory and 6,000 direct jobs (with emphasis on the word "direct"), the marine sector is one of the driving forces of the Maltese economy. Despite this, we are not tapping into the full potential of the marine sector, and our country still lacks a National Marine Strategy, with the EU Commission hinting that all member countries should have one such strategy up and running by 2004/2005.

Against this backdrop, it was felt that getting a realistic snapshot of current marine-related activities in this country as well as identifying the key forcings for the future in this field and innovative ways to exploit the marine sector more efficiently and in a more sustainable way was of the essence. The snapshot exercise is well underway and a number of meetings with key stakeholders within the sector have already been held.

All this has culminated in the launch of the R&D (Research and Development) Survey, also during the month of August. Such a survey, which does not require great toiling and effort to compile, was constructed with the close coordination of the National Statistics Office (NSO). If the marine sector is to blossom in our islands, a significant investment in innovating and modernising the sector is what is needed, as well as research into novel methodologies and processes to tap in new niche markets in a sustainable way. The only way to achieve this is for our major stakeholders is to invest frequently in R&D exercises. The UK Pharmaceutical giant GlaxoKline, the world's second largest, invests £2 billion annually on R&D and dedicates 15,000 of its staff to the job.

Hence, this survey aims to get a realistic picture of if, how and when such exercises are conducted within marine-related entities and of the manpower and funding dedicated to such exercises. Predictably, the results of such a survey will show that Malta needs to invest much more heavily in its educational sector to entice more young people to take up science and technology subjects who in turn can catalyse the upgrading of our marine sector.

According to the MCST-generated Innovation Scoreboard report (2002), the percentage of workers with a tertiary education in our islands is just seven per cent, compared with the EU average of 20.2 per cent. Such a lacuna can be attributed to a lack of tertiary education opportunities in the past, which is being partly addressed through tertiary courses tailor-made for the needs of industry at MCAST. Even this year's spike in the number of new recruits at MCAST is heartening. As few R&D surveys have been carried out in the past in our country, the Marine Pilot Project could serve to indirectly prompt our key drivers in other sectors to embark on a reappraisal of their operations and a greater move towards research investment.

Stopping only at the snapshot stage, however, would mean that the marine pilot would not be living up to its billing in that, being a foresight exercise, its major concern is the future development of particular sectors. In fact, ever since its inception, the project has been bestowed with the "duty" of projecting the probable future scenarios in the marine sector in the year 2020, the key uncertainties that this underdeveloped sector will face then, and what measures can be implemented now so as to mitigate these as much as possible and also the key opportunities (with the associated recommendations) that may be forecast to arise in the various marine-related areas of economic activity.

Forecasting is always an elusive exercise, however, this is not done in a helter skelter way in foresight projects but based on current trends and the actual key drivers in the sector. This exercise will yield recommendations for policy makers to ponder upon for the welfare of the marine sector in the year 2020 - such recommendations will be funnelled into a vision document to be produced by next October.

Involvement across the board is sought as a cornerstone of the methodology used within the Marine Pilot Project so as to create a broad-scope national marine dialogue by targeting all the different institutions and entities with a marine bearing in these islands, as well as NGOs, local councils and the public. For this reason, a broad-scope web discussion has been launched in mid-August, in an age where web-based fora are gaining in popularity, and can be accessed from the project's website.

Within such a discussion, a number of generic questions are posted so as to prompt the public's views and opinions on the long-term drivers for change in the marine sector towards the year 2020, and on the best strategies to adopt to best prepare the sector for this future. Within such a debate, different marine perspectives will help get a much more realistic picture of the importance of the marine sector as well as giving an idea of the public perception of major marine issues, such as bathing water quality, etc. While accessing the Marine Pilot Project part of the MCST website, the public is also provided with a list of other useful marine-related links.

Coupled with the launch of the proactive web discussion, a more ad hoc forum was launched concurrently for members of the so-called "Extended Group", hailing from entities with a direct bearing on the marine sector, such as Fisheries, Malta Maritime Authority, MEPA, MTA, etc. A number of highly valid contributions have already been posted on such a forum, namely grappling with coastal erosion, coastal planning, oil pollution, tourism and fisheries issues. The analysed feedback from these two fora will be made public at the end of August.

The progress of the Marine Pilot Project comes against the backdrop of other ensuing initiatives undertaken by the IOI (International Ocean Institute) Malta Operational Centre (IOI-MOC), at the University of Malta. In turn, a number of other projects are grouped under the umbrella the Mediterranean Global Ocean Observing System (MedGOOS).

This is an informal association of marine institutes founded under the auspices of the UNESCO/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) to provide a concerted approach to the planning and implementation of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) in the Mediterranean. The MedGOOS Secretariat is hosted in Malta within IOI-MOC.

The MedGOOS aims to facilitate the development of an operational ocean observing and forecasting system at a regional to coastal scale and to the benefit of a wide group of users in the region. MAMA (the Mediterranean network to Assess and upgrade the Monitoring and forecasting Activity in the region) is the first fledged project within the MedGOOS context. It is coordinated by the MedGOOS Secretariat and the International Marine Centre in Sardinia, Italy, and brings together a partnership from all the Mediterranean countries.

The novelty of MAMA, launched back in 2001, is being adopted in a vast number of other regional projects, the accent being placed on the dire need for the networking of existing facilities so as to better coordinate ongoing research, underpinning marine monitoring for the sustainable development of the basin and coastal seas. With the spawning of so many different projects, such coordination and communication of findings is of the essence.

MAMA's main objectives, in fact, are establishing the first network of Mediterranean countries for ocean monitoring and forecasting, integrating the knowledge derived from different but related research projects and bringing together different institutions and entities to harmonise strategies and bolster the sustainable development concept.

The Marine Pilot Foresight Project is led by Dr Aldo Drago, MedGOOS secretary and director of research at the IOI-Malta operational centre at the University of Malta, on behalf of the Malta Council for Science and Technology.

Mr Deidun is Marine Pilot Project Consultant.

www.eforesee.info/malta