Blair faces key elections as Iraq war winds down

Prime Minister Tony Blair's ruling Labour Party launched its campaign yesterday for a raft of elections which will be a crucial test of his decision to wage war in Iraq.

On May 1, more than 10,000 local government seats are up for grabs across England - the largest popular test for Blair outside a general election.

Hundreds of thousands of Britons have marched against the Iraq war in the past two months and Mr Blair has had to endure one of the biggest-ever revolts within his party over the issue.

But an opinion poll yesterday showed a leap in support for Mr Blair as the war apparently moves to a successful conclusion for Britain and the United States after 25 days of fighting.

The poll, by Populus for the Times newspaper, put backing for Labour at 41 per cent with their Conservative opponents trailing far behind on 29. Before battle was joined, the same group had the two parties neck-and-neck at 34 per cent.

Labour officials insist local elections are fought on local issues but they will be relieved British troops and Iraqi civilians are not dying en masse as Britons go to the polls.

Mr Blair, 49, remains favourite for a third general election win in 2005, or 2006, whatever happens at next month's voting.

But his main opponent, Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith, may find his fate hanging on the local polls.

Before the war swept all else off the political agenda, Conservative lawmakers were privately muttering that a poor showing could spell the end for him.

Duncan Smith took over after the party's June 2001 election hammering but has made little impact on Blair's standing.

Conservative sources say at the very least, Mr Smith needs to demonstrate on May 1 that he can make inroads into Labour's huge parliamentary majority.

Launching their campaign in England's second city, Birmingham, Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott spelled out his government's investment in schools, hospitals and policing, claiming the Conservatives would cut that expenditure by 20 per cent across the board in favour of tax cuts.

The Conservatives counter that local council taxes, paid by every English household, are going through the roof.

Both main parties have already started the pre-election ritual of lowering expectations.

The Conservatives say a net gain of 30 to 100 local council seats, out of the roughly 10,400 in play, would show they have shaken off general election drubbings in 1997 and 2001.

But independent analysts say the Conservatives must gain around 400 seats net to show they are on the road to recovery.

The council seats up for re-election were last voted on in 1999 when the Conservatives made a rare strong showing. The Conservatives are defending about 3,700, Labour around 3,400.

In Scotland and Wales, the Conservatives are marginalised. Labour's main challengers in the devolved Edinburgh and Cardiff parliaments are nationalist parties the SNP and Plaid Cymru.