Bush to push Mideast peace?

US President George W. Bush's vow to throw himself into Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking after the Iraq war draws deep scepticism in the Middle East, but both sides say modest progress is possible to stabilise the conflict.

Voicing admiration for British Prime Minister Tony Blair's dedication to peace in Northern Ireland, President Bush told a joint news conference in Belfast: "I'm willing to spend the same amount of energy in the Middle East."

Most Palestinians, pro-Western Arab leaders and European governments fervently wish that were true, but the consensus among Middle East analysts is: Don't hold your breath.

They say President Bush will remain too preoccupied with Iraq, too loath to upset Jewish and Christian Right voters, and too wary of his predecessor's diplomatic failure to risk a peace drive.

"I don't believe it. So long as Bush is in office, he will not do anything," veteran Egyptian commentator Salama Ahmed Salama, a columnist at al-Ahram newspaper, told Reuters.

"Iraq will keep him busy for the next three to four months, then he'll be into the (2004 presidential) election campaign. Can you imagine he is going to take any measure that will stir hostility in the US Jewish community?"

Israeli analyst Efraim Inbar also voiced polite scepticism at President Bush's commitment, while saying greater US activism to calm the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would be welcome.

"Maybe he has such an intention. I wish him success. But I think Iraq will keep him busy for a while," said Mr Inbar, head of the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies. "The coming US election year makes life for the Israelis a bit easier."

Many Arab commentators complain that President Bush, in contrast to former president Bill Clinton, has steered clear of Middle East peacemaking and given Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon a free hand to crack down on a Palestinian uprising for independence.

They say Mr Sharon seems to have convinced Bush the Palestinian issue is a "terrorism" problem, to be dealt with militarily like the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington.

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw acknowledged last week that the West had been guilty of double standards in enforcing UN resolutions on Iraq while appearing "rather quixotic over the implementation of resolutions about Israel and Palestine".

US and European diplomats say pressure from Iraq war allies Britain and Spain is one reason why President Bush has pledged to turn his attention to the Israel-Palestinian issue now.

Another is the need to restore the image of the US and Britain in the Arab world after the deep unpopularity of the invasion to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

A senior European Union diplomat said US Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to Brussels last week was "the first time in two years we have seen this administration determined" to engage in the peace process.

President Bush promised that a long-delayed "roadmap" towards a Palestinian state in 2005 would finally be published as soon as Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) announces his cabinet.

On Wednesday, Palestinian President Yasser Arafat gave Mr Abbas two more weeks to name his ministers amid signs of differences between them that could be another obstacle to the plan.

Drafted by a so-called Quartet of US, EU, Russian and United Nations diplomats, the plan calls for phased, reciprocal steps to halt violence, restore security cooperation, withdraw Israeli troops from Palestinian areas and lift an economic blockade on them and reform Palestinian governance.

"It is not enough to introduce a roadmap, there must be a specific mechanism for action and Israel must stop its continuing aggression against the Palestinian people," Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said, reflecting Arab frustration.

Palestinian cabinet minister Ghassan Khatib complained that Bush "keeps saying he's committed to the roadmap but he keeps postponing it, which gives us the impression he is not sincere".

Washington delayed publishing the peace plan, drafted last December, first because of an Israeli election, then while Sharon formed his government, then until the Palestinians named a prime minister, and now until he appoints his cabinet.

Mr Khatib said the Palestinians had started to fulfil their part of the bargain, working to reduce Palestinian violence and enact political and administrative reforms.

Yet while attacks on Israel had dwindled, Mr Sharon continued killings of wanted Palestinian militants, he said.

Diplomats said the Quartet would use the roadmap to bolster Abbas as soon as his team was formed. Despite wrangling, they expect former Gaza security chief Mohammed Dahlan to be put in charge of a total overhaul of the Palestinian security forces.

"We expect the Israelis to make some early gestures to the new Palestinian government, perhaps lifting some of the closures of towns, easing the economic siege and pulling back forces from Gaza," one said. "Sharon needs a diplomatic process too."

Mr Inbar said the Israeli leader had a close relationship of trust with President Bush and would embrace the roadmap in principle while seeking to amend it to put the emphasis on security.

The real test, he said, was whether Mr Abbas would crack down on what he called the Hamas and Islamic Jihad militias.