Not a game of bingo

People have been stopping me in the street to ask me: how shall I vote? I know them to be supporters of EU membership and pro-Nationalist, the latter if only by default, but still I am not surprised at their question.

Their confusion has been created by the myths and rumours doing the rounds: that some of the Nationalist vote must go to Alternattiva (AD) to ensure that EU membership is not lost, that No. 2 votes have to go to AD, that if AD does not get a seat in Parliament, disaster will follow.

This is my answer: whatever you do, don't vote for AD. If Labour gets 49% of the vote, the Nationalists get 48%, and AD get 3%, Alfred Sant will be prime minister and Malta will not be in Athens to sign the EU accession treaty on April 16. If you think that the votes of AD and PN can then be reckoned together to make a pro-membership coalition government with 51% of the vote, you are very wrong. The Constitution does not allow this.

If you believe in EU membership for Malta, if you don't want to see Dr Sant smirking with delight on the steps of Castille this time next week, don't vote AD. There is only one electoral result that guarantees Malta's membership of the EU and ensures that Dr Sant is not prime minister next week: 50%+1 of the total number of first count valid votes must go to the PN. If you vote for AD and not for the PN, you will reduce by one vote the chances of the Nationalists reaching that crucial 50%+1. In a crisis situation where every vote counts, your one vote to AD can lock Malta out of Europe for generations to come, and make Dr Sant prime minister.

Alternattiva is more attractive to people who would ordinarily vote Nationalist than it is to traditional Labour supporters. That is why support for this party is highest in Sliema, St Julian's, Swieqi, Attard, Balzan and Lija. I am one of them - a Slimiza born and bred. I voted for AD in 1992 because I found them more attractive than the PN but - and this is a crucial point - I did so because I felt that the Nationalists would win in any case. I felt no sense of urgency. I didn't think the absence of my vote would make any difference.

In 1992 I voted AD not because I wanted the Nationalists out of power and KMB as prime minister - heaven forbid. I did so because I was able to relate to Harry Vassallo, which is unsurprising given that he was almost literally the boy next door (so was John Attard Montalto, which is why he is practically the only member of the Labour Party I feel comfortable with - though that's incidental).

It is precisely because I can understand the mentality of those who wish to vote for Alternattiva, but who want Dr Sant safely away from Castille and unbridled power, that I am writing this now to tell people: don't do it. Don't vote for Alternattiva in this election. It's too dangerous.

In 1996 I didn't take the risk of voting for Alternattiva because, despite the enthusiasm for the Nationalist Party, everywhere I went, people who would never have dreamt of voting Labour were saying they wouldn't vote for the Nationalists, indicating they would either vote for AD or for Sant's party. He was a new face to them then, though not to me, and so they helped to elect him. I didn't vote for AD in 1998, either, because so much was at stake.

When Malta is safely anchored in the EU, when the Labour Party is led by someone without prejudices or chips on his shoulder, who understands that private business is not public enemy No. 1 but the main economic driver, when Malta is beyond dispute a country in which politicians do not threaten and harass journalists or condone the burning of the buildings in which they work, then I might think about voting for Alternattiva again.

Until then, I won't. There is far too much at stake. This is the election that will either save Malta or destroy it. As Eileen Montesin put it to the prime minister, "It's do or die". If she can understand this, she who featured on Xandir Malta championing the cause of the Labour government in the dreadful early 1980s, then you, annoyed as you are with the Nationalists for whatever reason, should be able to do so, too.

There is no room for dithering or experimenting with votes for third parties. If you're standing on a railway track and a train is approaching at high speed, you jump out of the way. You don't stand around discussing alternative options like lying down and hoping the wheels might miss you.

The election result has to guarantee two matters of the utmost importance for Malta: that we become members of the EU and safe for the rest of time, and that Dr Sant is kept away from the seat of government, where he can do far more damage than he has done in Opposition, and where the scope for undemocratic behaviour is so much greater.

There is a third objective to be achieved, which is just as essential for Malta, though nobody mentions it: fundamental reform of the Labour Party into something that does not fill people like me with terror at the thought they might end up in government. We all want a Labour Party we can feel safe with. The 1996 vote shows how much people want this, though the promise was short-lived and built on image only.

On Saturday, vote to save Malta. Whatever your personal prejudice, irritations, dislikes, desire for Schadenfreude, hatred of the people Dr Sant has taught you to call "the friends of friends", be very clear on this point: unless you want Dr Sant running the country in exactly the same way he is running the Opposition (and worse) you must give your No. 1 vote to the Nationalist Party.

Don't even experiment by giving your No. 2 or No. 3 to Alternattiva. It's just not worth the risk, even though people like Harry Vassallo and Anne Zammit are so much more appealing than so many PN candidates. Whether they are appealing or not is not the point right now. Your safety, and the safety of the country, eclipses all that.