A coalition of voters... not of seats

If Alternattiva Demokratika were to have one member of parliament elected, can a coalition be set up with the PN, in parliament, to ensure Malta's entry into the European Union?

The answer to this question is: at best, in terms of our constitution, the AD seat can only serve to increase an already established Yes-PN majority.

At worst, it can prevent the biggest yes party from getting the all important 50+1 of the votes at the first count necessary to stop an MLP-no government .

Let us be absolutely clear about the rules of the electoral system and then we can decide how best to vote.

Our first preference is of vital importance. It is only the party which, on its own, gets the 50 per cent plus one of all the first count votes that is guaranteed a majority in parliament of at least one seat. Constitutionally, there is no manner in which the number one votes of PN candidates may be added to the number one votes of AD candidates to make the 50 per cent plus one of votes necessary to be sure of governing.

For the purposes of the all important 50 per cent plus one majority rule , each party is on its own.

So if the PN gets 49.9 per cent of the first preferences and AD gets 0.2 per cent, the electoral commission will not add them up to make 51.1 per cent. Not even if both parties were to agree to do so. The constitution does not allow it.

Even of greater importance is that neither will the electoral commission add the PN and AD votes for the purposes of a relative majority. So if the MLP gets 46 per cent; the PN 45.5 per cent and AD two per cent, the electoral commission will all the same make sure that the MLP gets the absolute majority of seats in parliament.

A coalition is normally understood to be a political agreement between two or more parties to add up their seats in parliament to govern a country together. In most other democratic countries it means simply adding up seats in parliament to form a majority in parliament.

In Malta this situation is very improbable because of the quirks of the electoral system. In fact, the electoral commission first declares the seats elected from all the districts and only subsequently will it pass on to add the necessary extra seats to that party which would have 50 per cent plus one of the votes to give it the required overall majority of one seat.

Let us see how it worked in 1987 and 1996.

In 1987 the electoral commission first declared elected 34 seats for the MLP, then declared 31 seats for the PN. But because the PN obtained the majority of the first preference votes, the commission went on to add four extra seats to give the PN a one seat majority in parliament.

In 1996 the electoral commission had first declared that the PN had elected 34 seats, then declared 31 seats for the MLP. But because the MLP this time obtained the majority of the first preference votes, the commission went on to add four extra seats to give the MLP a one seat majority in parliament.

So, if in 2003 Alternattiva were to have a seat in parliament and the result would be PN - 32 seats, MLP - 32 seats and AD one seat, but the MLP were to get 50.1 per cent of the first preferences, then the electoral commission would have to add two more seats to the MLP, without even bothering to ask if there is a political coalition between AD and PN! Final result would be MLP - 34 seats, PN - 32 seats, AD - one seat.

If Alternattiva genuinely wants to serve the national Iva campaign, it should appeal for a coalition of voters to give the biggest Iva party the number one preference. As we have seen, a coalition of seats alone, in terms of our electoral system gives no guarantees at all.

When on the night of April 13, while waiting for the official first count results, you hear a carcade starting on the roads, know that then it would be absolutely irrelevant whether Alternattiva have elected a seat or not.