The April 12 election is unique not only because it will determine Malta's role in Europe and thus, its future course, but also the fate of the two major party leaders.
Things would probably change drastically if Labour loses, although a narrow defeat may still see Alfred Sant at the helm. On the Nationalist side, a loss would certainly mean the resignation of Dr Fenech Adami, although a narrow victory would probably make the party reconsider some of its policies.
If Labour wins, the likelihood is that we could be facing an experimental 'partnership' at best and an economic disaster at worst if we miss our chance to join the European Union. Moreover, the fact that Dr Sant first stated that in the March 8 referendum 'partnership' had won and later proposed holding another referendum to give voters a choice between 'partnership' and EU membership is senseless, to say the least.
Alternattiva Demokratika's consistent position on the EU and the environment is admirable. On the other hand, this fledgling party, now contesting its fourth election, may simply see a smaller dividend thanks to the extreme polarisation that has developed over the EU issue, and the fact that in our situation, pro-EU voters would probably not risk splitting the pro-EU vote and thus allow the MLP to become the biggest party.
The general election - the ninth since independence in 1964 - unlike the last one in 1998, will be seeing some minor changes in district boundaries and will also feature more candidates who are also serving as local councillors. No fewer than 45 candidates, in fact, have also contested local council elections.
There are also 25 candidates aged 30 or under - six PN, 13 MLP and nine with AD. Nine candidates are over 60 years old - six PN, three MLP.
The PN is fielding 59 professionals (lawyers, doctors, architects, managers, teachers, lecturers and administrators), the MLP 45 and AD eight.
There are 248 candidacies in 13 districts, in contrast to 283 in 1998. However, more university graduates are participating.
Let us analyse each district in terms of boundary changes, candidatures, and party performances in local council elections.
District 1 (Valletta, Floriana, Hamrun, Pietà and part of St Venera): This district had 20,964 eligible voters in the October electoral register (on which these elections will be based) and was the smallest in terms of number of voters. No boundary changes took place here.
This district has always been regarded as marginal, whether it included Marsa and part of Paola or in its present composition, unchanged since 1992. (A marginal district is a district that is won and lost by not more than 500 votes or 3% of the votes).
So far the PN has won this district by small margins, its best ever performance being in 1992, when it polled 55.5%. Labour came very close in 1996 as just 101 votes separated the two parties. However, the PN did recoup many votes in the last election.
This time, the list of candidates contesting this district has undergone some very interesting changes, the most important caused by the fact that the former deputy leader of the Nationalist Party, Professor Guido de Marco, was elected President of the Republic in 1999 and so cannot contest. However his son, Dr Mario de Marco, will be contesting for the first time, naturally with the PN.
Former Nationalist MP Louis Cuschieri will also not be contesting this time. Young lawyer Dr Paula Mifsud Bonnici will also be contesting for the first time, and will follow the footsteps of her father, Dr Antoine Mifsud Bonnici, who has been returned for the Nationalist Party at every election since 1976.
The other elected PN candidates, Dr Jean-Pierre Farrugia and Justice Minister Dr Austin Gatt will also be competing against newcomers Dr Mario Tabone Vassallo and Dr Peter Attard, as well as Valletta mayor Dr Paul Borg Olivier, Pietà mayor Dr Malcolm Mifsud and Floriana councillor Edward Torpiano.
Two notable Labour councillors, Valerie Borg of Valletta and Hamrun mayor Dr Luciano Busuttil, will also be contesting this district for the first time. Together with veterans Dr John Buttigieg, Dr Charles Mangion, former Speaker Dr Myriam Spiteri Debono, MP Dr Josè Herrera and former MP Dr Sandro Schembri-Adami, they will be contesting the district with party leader Dr Alfred Sant.
Michael Briguglio and Mark Vella will be representing AD on the first district. This will be the first time that these two candidates will be contesting a general election. Vella is a former presenter on Live FM and Times critic and teacher while Briguglio shall be following in his father's footsteps. Professor Lino Briguglio, who had been expelled from the MLP, set up the Democratic Party which unsuccessfully contested the 1987 election.
District 2 (Cospicua, Senglea, Vittoriosa, Kalkara, Xghajra, part of Zabbar, Fgura)
This district will also be quite crucial for both the PN and MLP because the fourth seat, which traditionally is won here by Labour, is marginal. It went the PN's way in 1998 - the first time the Nationalists elected their second MP from this district since 1966.
It remains to be seen whether the PN will hold on to this second seat. Its representatives, Deputy Prime Minister Dr Lawrence Gonzi and Dr Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici will again be contesting and will be joined by Dr Francis Agius, Michael Mercieca and newcomer Stephen Spiteri.
Labour is fielding outgoing MPs Rita Law, Christopher Agius, Dr Karl Chircop and Joseph Mizzi, as well as Architect Stephen Buontempo, Dr Joseph Cassar Delia and newcomers Robert Micallef, Sharon Ellul-Bonici and Edric Micallef. Engineer Stephen Perici, who last time won 1,465 first count votes and was only pipped at the post by Rita Law will not be contesting this time.
AD has three candidates - Kurt Sansone, Ian Meli and Mark Scerri. Although former Prime Minister and MLP leader Dom Mintoff will not be contesting, his Maltese Arise Front campaign against EU membership and for a Labour vote may have a bearing on the result.
District 3 (Zabbar, Zejtun, Marsascala). The fourth seat for Labour in this district, which hasn't seen any boundary changes, may prove to be marginal as in 1976, 1987 and 1996. Time and again the PN have been very close to losing their second seat only to bounce back with more comfortable margins. Such a trend has been going on in this district since 1955 when the PN started electing its second member thanks to a strong first-count showing by Dr Alexander Cachia Zammit. Then the PN just edged through their second quota with 87 votes. A repeat took place in 1996 when the PN only scraped through their second quota with 86 votes.
Nationalist MPs Dr Francis Agius and Mario Galea are contesting together with dentist Miriam Sciberras, Michael Mercieca, and newcomers Dr Helga Zahra, Marsascala councillor Elizabeth Piscopo and Stephen Spiteri. Dr Joseph Psaila Savona, former Parliamentary Secretary for Tourism, is not contesting this time. Neither is former MLP candidate Marjohn Abela, son of former Minister Wistin Abela. In 1998 he polled 982 votes.
Labour has two newcomers, Notary Owen Bonnici and Jesmar Baldacchino, who are also very much in the media. Bonnici has just been elected Marsascala councillor. They will join MPs Helena Dalli, Carmelo Abela, and MLP deputy leader Dr George Vella, as well as former MP Joseph Abela, former Minister Alfred Portelli, Chris Agius, Dr Joseph Cassar Delia and Rosario Zammit.
AD's candidates are Mario Mallia and Kurt Sansone. An independent candidate, Nazzareno Bonnici, will also contest this district.
District 4 (Marsa, Paola, Tarxien, St Lucija, Gudja)
This district, which also remains unchanged, will surely feature keen contests between three prominent PN candidates, namely Parliamentary Secretary Jesmond Mugliett, MP Dr Jason Azzopardi and PN president Dr Victor Scerri, as well as six prominent MLP candidates, MPs Dr Karl Chircop, Silvio Parnis, former MP Dr Sandro Schembri Adami, CNI campaigner Sharon Ellul-Bonici, MLP deputy leader Dr Joe Brincat and Labour media head and financial consultant Alfred Mifsud.
Architects Martin Debono and Lawrence Mintoff, former Gudja MP John Dalli and Stefan Zahra complete the MLP list.
Notary Joe Cilia, Super One journalist Joe Mifsud, former Labour MP Salvu Sant and Massimo Ellul will not be contesting for the MLP this time.
Apart from Dr Scerri, the PN shall also feature Marsa newcomers Eman Camilleri and former mayor Charles Aquilina, as well as Tarxien councillor Lawrence Bonavia and Paola councillor Duncan Borg Myatt. Frank Zammit, Ing. Raymond Piscopo, Mary Vella, Karl Causon, Pierre Mallia and former Parliamentary Secretary, and former MP Dr Joseph Cassar (now magistrate) will not be contesting this time.
Mario Mallia and Carmel Hili are contesting this district on the AD ticket.
District 5 (Marsaxlokk, Ghaxaq, Birzebbuga, Zurrieq, Qrendi, Mqabba, Safi)
Qrendi returns with this district which is another comfortable one for the MLP. In 1996 it was very close to electing a fourth MP but the PN reversed this negative result and elected two candidates with a surplus of more than 1,000 votes. Missing from the PN list will be Hermann Schiavone, who polled 1,587 votes in 1998. He withdrew his candidacy after an anonymous letter alleging his involvement in certain abuses, addressed to the Prime Minister and the Police Commissioner. His wife Anne will be contesting instead.
Ministers Louis Galea and Ninu Zammit will once more contest this district. The former has been elected since 1976 and Mr Zammit since 1981. MP Helen D'Amato will also be contesting. They will be joined by lawyers Franco Debono and Helga Zahra, Qrendi councillor Nadine Sciberras and John Schembri.
MLP deputy leader Dr George Vella, and Labour MPs Carmelo Vella, Dr Joe Sammut and Dr Louis Buhagiar will contest together with Ancel Farrugia Migneco, former MP Reno Calleja, Joe Farrugia and Albert Pace and newcomers Edric Micallef who is deputy mayor of Marsaxlokk and Silvio Izzi Savona.
Ralph Cassar and Mark Vella will contest this district on behalf of AD. According to last October's register, was the largest, with 23,683 eligible voters.
District 6 (Kirkop, Luqa, Qormi, St Venera)
In 1998 Labour almost lost a seat here as the PN surged with a 5% swing in its favour. Things will probably not be so bright for the PN, now that Kirkop has been added, having been hived off from the fifth district. This small locality is a Labour stronghold. Again, local councillors may have a great say in how things would develop.
Minister John Dalli and Parliamentary Secretary Dr George Hyzler, who represent the PN in this district, will be contesting together with former Qormi mayor Clyde Puli, as well as Qormi councillor Margaret Mercieca, Parliamentary Secretary Dr Antoine Mifsud Bonnici and John Attard. St Venera councillor Elizabeth Vella will not be contesting this time.
The MLP candidates here are MPs Dr Charles Mangion and Marie Louise Coleiro, Dr Gavin Gulia, Dr John Attard-Montalto and Joe Debono Grech, as well as Qormi mayor Roderick Galdes. Notary Mark Sammut will not be contesting this time.
AD will be represented by Jurgen Balzan and James Debono.
(To be concluded)