Real commander- in-chief

Many political analysts are maintaining that the days of Dr Alfred Sant are numbered. A high Yes referendum vote would settle the fate of the Labour Party and that of its leader in particular. A recovery would hardly be possible in the short time until the coming elections. But Dr Sant could be more versatile than his opponents wish him to be.

A clue for such versatility could lie in the answer he gave in reply to the three questions posed by the Prime Minister before the latter announced the referendum date. Among other things Dr Sant would have agreed to recognise the referendum result in case it showed a 60 per cent majority.

He was careful enough to hide this concession, so as not to be seen admitting defeat. His primary condition to hold the election prior to the referendum presented the ideal tarnish. Nevertheless, the core of that reply remains the readiness of Dr Sant to recognise a high referendum result.

This 'condition' was mostly attacked to be undemocratic by the party in government. Finance Minister John Dalli went so far as to see Labour weighting its vote double the PN one according to this equation.

The present administration is expecting a Yes vote in the referendum and that such a vote would boost its chances of winning the ensuing general elections. This very simple plan implies that every Yes voter would be eager to safeguard his or her vote for Europe in the general elections by voting for the Nationalist Party (AD poses a minor default), that is in favour of membership.

Dr Sant has retained the possibility to cross this strategy by signalling recognition of a referendum result with a 60 per cent majority. Had the PN taken up such a hint, it would have had to throw its main pre-election strategy overboard.

PN bereft of its own strategy

Nobody could exactly tell the real motive behind the three questions posed by the Prime Minister. Had they been made to compel Dr Sant to reveal whether Labour was about to declare a boycott against the referendum? I do not think on these lines because I neither hold Dr Fenech Adami nor his really cunning co-adjutants that naïve to think Dr Sant would fall into such a trap.

But those questions are history now whereas Dr Sant's could still develop a new life. It could have contained a very intelligent device how to leave all doors open and be used as a pivot for a post-referendum revival.

Indeed, a Yes vote by over 60 per cent of the electorate would have constituted a worst case scenario for Labour throughout the whole EU membership campaign. Today, while reading this article you may be in a better position to gauge whether such a scenario is about to become a reality (I am writing this on March 2).

For such an outcome Dr Sant has left one card close to his chest. The PN wilfully chose to ignore its contents. Dr Sant could very soon remind the people of his pledge that Labour would recognise a referendum with 60 per cent of the vote and that is precisely what the party intends to do under his leadership. It does not matter that he is not Prime Minister yet, as long as such a turn could help him regain power during the ensuing general elections.

With Labour jumping on the EU train after this had already moved out of the station, the PN would lose its EU monopoly. The baffled PN would be left with only one old-fashioned outworn tool against Dr Sant. Still drunk with victory, it would turn on the people and tell them: "do not trust him". But at that moment the PN would have to build a completely new strategy and draft an alternative programme.

Once the MLP promises to abide by the referendum result, the PN would be devoid of its primary mission of safeguarding membership. It would then have to start explaining to the electorate why many projections for this legislature are off target, why the country has fallen behind and why so many problems have not yet been seriously tackled during this tenure despite the few visible deliverables.

On the other side, Dr Sant could easily explain that by recognising a result with over 60 per cent he is sticking to his pre-referendum promise and thus he could work his way out of the defensive.

Hence an overwhelming overall majority of 60 per cent in favour of membership would not necessarily translate in an electoral victory for the PN. It could give the present administration an unattainable lead only if Dr Sant hesitates to make use of his own plan.

Mental leap

Given the split vote recommended by the MLP at the referendum, the final referendum result could show well over 70 per cent in favour of membership with a turnout of over 80 per cent. Invalid and No votes are not likely to exceed 30 per cent between them. Such an outcome would leave Dr Sant with two options.

He could start interpreting and spinning that the 70 per cent Yes votes are in fact slightly over 50 per cent of all those eligible to vote. Such an interpretation ignores the deserters from his own flock and strengthens their decision to underpin their Yes vote with one for the PN at the general elections.

Only with a margin of 20 per cent abstentions together with at least 40 per cent of the voters who voted No or invalidated their vote, could Dr Sant try to belittle the achievement of a positive vote. In such a case he has also left his hands free to continue on the 'partnership' ticket.

But even the fact that Labour has opted to split its referendum vote suggests that the party had no interest in achieving a clear and unambiguous result. In this way it would be easier for the MLP to go for the second option and admit that the threshold of 60 per cent in favour has been attained and that as a democrat Dr Sant will now bow to the will of the majority.

Yet it would not be a walkover for Dr Sant either. He may have that vision and the strategic affinity to devise such a plan. He could have foreseen that the MLP would not be in a position to regain those Labour voters who opted to vote yes at the referendum. Nonetheless it would be difficult for Labour to recover all the lost sheep at this stage.

The Labourites who voted yes at the referendum have already made a mental leap away from Dr Sant and the period of time between the two elections may be too short in order to reverse their decision and vote against the party that has favoured membership from the outset.

On the other hand it would be also difficult for Dr Sant to persuade his supporters who toured with him on the no membership campaign bus. Would these understand this change of mind of their leader and would their support remain unbroken?

One never knows. After all, the 'disloyal' Labourites who opted to vote in favour of EU membership could feel that their yes vote made sense and influenced their party in an unforeseen but most welcome manner.

Many of them could argue that Dr Sant is versatile and that he is the real commander-in-chief capable of devising a winning strategy especially when all seems to be lost. The loyal supporters could be more willing to make the mental leap as long as the party leadership shows them the pastures of victory after the fresh defeat.

Phoenix out of the ashes

Indisputably, Dr Sant has suffered and matured through humiliations, losses and backstabbing. His months in office were dominated by party infighting where the MLP had to emancipate itself from the almighty former leader, who held an entire government hostage with his leverage backbencher vote.

But Dr Sant has proved himself to be a durable person where others would have long thrown in the towel. Dr Sant has even managed to increase his popular support during the last four years. Such a quality ought not to be easily dismissed in a leader.

Before the 1998 elections many political analysts were predicting the end of the era of either Dr Fenech Adami or of Dr Sant. Both are still politically alive and kicking. Dr Fenech Adami has consolidated his position once more within his own party and may be tempted to try another full term in office in the absence of an evident successor. All crown princes are burned out through this rather unsuccessful legislature.

On the other hand, Dr Sant has more than once been certified politically dead but he has shown a great determination for political survival. In the next few weeks we would know whether he is in fact the Maltese politician whose days are counted. He could as well prove to be the real commander-in-chief that prevails over all those who would have wished to occupy some key positions in the very near future.