No smooth road to 2010

One of the ultimate aims of the Euro-Med process is to create a Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area with the EU Mediterranean partners and establish free trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council - with six Gulf countries which figure as the fifth EU most important trade partners.

The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, commonly known as the Barcelona Process, has never had a smooth road to run.

Its launching at Barcelona in November 1995 was heralded with enthusiasm as the European Union, the 15 member states, and 12 Mediterranean partners agreed to seek a new "partnership" phase of their relationship, including bilateral and multilateral or regional cooperation. It came after 20 years of increasingly intensive bilateral trade and development cooperation between them.

The Euro-Med process falls under the European Commission's External Relations Directorate-General, commonly known as DG Patten, after Commissioner Chris Patten, the last Governor of Hong Kong before its integration with mainland China.

The 12 Mediterranean partners, situated in the southern and eastern Mediterranean, are Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia (Maghreb); Egypt, Israel, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, Lebanon, Syria (Mashrek); Turkey, Cyprus and Malta. Libya currently has observer status at certain meetings.

When Malta and Cyprus join the EU in May 2004, they will not be considered as partners any more but will be on the side of those enjoying membership rights which the "partners" cannot achieve.

It is common knowledge that these "partners" differ enormously in their economic, political and infrastructural development. Some are continually at war or on the brink of war with their neighbour or neighbours.

Morocco is at odds with Algeria which is beset with the problem of its four-million strong Berber minority. This strong ethnic group spills over into Tunisia, with no so happy results for the two countries. This latter country's relations with Libya are not exactly smooth, as is also the case with Libya and Egypt, in spite of some progress from past situations.

The Arab nations do not recognise Israel. Turkey has still to prove that it is taking democracy seriously, especially in its relations with the Kurds.

GDP levels are generally low except for those of Israel, Cyprus and Malta. A look at the figures in the table shows the sharp contrasts that exist between these three countries and the Arab ones.

In the main, the slowness of the whole process stems from what seems to be the difficulty for Arab economies to take off the ground. Levels of development are a major problem and there seems to be a widespread malaise that is rooted in tradition.

Of course, this is not exclusive to Arab or Arab-speaking countries bordering the Mediterranean littoral. Even oil-rich countries in the Middle East show a huge developmental imbalance within their own territories. But it does happen that there are nine Mediterranean countries (and Libya) that are involved in the Euro-Med process.

The Arab Human Development Report 2002, compiled by a number of Arab intellectuals and published at the beginning of July, warns that Arab societies are being crippled by a lack of political freedom, the repression of women and an isolation from the world of ideas that stifles creativity. The report was commissioned by the United Nations and co-sponsored by the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development of the Arab League.

The report notes that the per capita income of some Arab countries has shrunk in the last 20 years to a level just above that of sub-Saharan Africa. Little or no advance has been made in science and technology, productivity is declining and research and development are hardly existent. Even where oil revenue is available, the difference it has made to standards of living is by no means proportionate.

The advancement of women, says the report, is almost universally denied, with half the female population still unable to read or write.

While admitting that, despite growing populations, the standard of living in Arab countries on the whole has advanced considerably and education spending is higher than elsewhere in the developing world, the report notes that creative and intellectual activity is passing through a critical period.

The use of the internet is low, film-making is on the decline and there is a "severe shortage" of new writing and a dearth of translations of works from outside. New books are often tied to religious themes, many of them becoming best sellers. Fouad Ajami, director of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University, speaks of repression by both the state and religious vigilantes resulting in a decrease of intellectual freedom and growing power to a lower middle class whose members are literate but not broadly educated. This group, he says, shows a "lack of hospitality to anyone of free spirit, anyone who is a dissident, anyone who is different".

Of course, the worst victim is democracy. There is hardly any movement in politics; rulers, even elected ones, stay in power for life and create dynasties. Reform and change do not seem to form part of normal vocabulary.

Notwithstanding some progress in commercial and business collaboration, the road ahead is not an easy one.

Telecommunications, a vital component for any development, are nowhere at a level which can compare with that of EU countries or even with that of EU candidate countries.

So also is technology. The technical innovation system in most of the Mediterranean partner countries is rather limited. It is found in some universities where incentives to teaching are given for basic research. But science/industrial parks and extension services are generally lacking in the university system. Cooperation between the industrial sector and universities is therefore almost non-existent.

Neither is research and development too common in industry. The few industries that have R&D units mostly concentrate on basic routine testing and lack the means to conduct high level research on their own.

Expenditure on R&D activities in these countries ranges from 0.1 to 0.6 per cent of the GNP, compared to 0.6 to 3.5 per cent in EU countries. Scientists and engineers involved in R&D range from 100-500 per million of the population compared to 800-4000 in EU countries. Similar ratios apply to technicians.

These conclusions have lately been confirmed by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia.

The Arab world, it states, is moving very slowly to become a part of the global economy. Its share of world trade, computer usage and tourism is well behind other regions. PC ownership represents only one per cent of the world total.

Many Euro-Med partners are dominated by the agricultural sector with mostly small-scale traditional industries. The transition from a primary sector-based society to one orientated towards industry and services has been making little progress.

The contents of the report provide a not too rosy background to the progress that the Euro-Med process could achieve. They point out major deficiencies that have to be addressed by the recipient countries, with the exclusion of Malta, Cyprus and Israel.

Time is running out. In fact, there are few who believe that the Euro-Med free trade, at which the process aims, can be achieved by 2010. And really tangible signs of improvement in the political dialogue, human rights and democracy are not too clear.

It is against this background that any discussion on the possibilities of the Euro-Med partnership has to be considered.

No wonder that the European Bank Forum held at Sorrento in October 2001 called for an intensification of efforts if the original aims and time frames of the process were to be achieved.

Tomorrow: "Hard nuts to crack"