Alfred Sant has more to worry about on the outcome of the coming battles for people's minds than the prime minister. For the leader of the opposition, the polls will be more than just a contest. There is much more at stake for him.

While the prime minister would be bitterly disappointed to see his European dream come to nothing, if he loses the referendum, the country will suffer with him. That will perhaps not be immediately apparent but not very long after Eddie Fenech Adami would have given up the leadership of his party - which is likely to be imminent after the election, no matter its outcome - the country would rue having turned its back on Europe. That would be the consequence in the unlikely event of the coming referendum being lost which, everything indicates, will go Dr Fenech Adami's way.

For Dr Sant, however, the pangs of a referendum defeat would have more meaning. The likely "yes" vote for Europe would not necessarily mean a Nationalist victory in the subsequent general election - politicians have regretted making foregone conclusions before - but it would surely make Dr Sant's uphill struggle much more difficult. For quite validly, the Nationalist Party will go into the hustings with the potent message that Labour in government would deny the people their express, sovereign wish, as spelled out in the referendum. Hardly anything else could be more devastating for electoral momentum.

The political future would be bleak indeed for Dr Sant should he lose both the referendum and the election. For it is inconceivable that he would remain leader of his party. How could his party accept that? With the Mintoff-Mifsud Bonnici tandem working against him, the urge for the party to ditch him could hardly be resistible. The wounds of the 1998 electoral loss, after just 22 months in office following nine years of opposition, would reopen in all their festering sores.

In Malta, unfortunately for it, leadership of a political party seems to be a job for life. Leaders do not come and go. They come and stay, no matter their results - with one notable exception. Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici entered parliament without fighting an election. He became prime minister, lost the election he fought holding that office, lost another leading the opposition, and wisely threw in the towel. The country breathed a sigh of relief.

He was followed by Dr Sant, elected in a party vote which subsequently raised much controversy, the vote's validity coming to be questioned, even if no substantial, hard evidence of what had been alleged has so far materialised. That difficulty was buried, but the party longs to be back in power. Losing the referendum, and the election, after the electoral loss of 1998, will make Dr Sant look a loser. Who wants a loser for party leader?

Dr Sant must see all this. He cannot be comforted by the bleak political outlook. He is fighting a desperate battle. And it does not concern him alone. The questions the country must ask itself are: is this outlook colouring Dr Sant's thinking? Is Dr Sant genuinely convinced in his anti-EU membership thinking, or has he only dug in his heels against the membership package obtained because it would be politically suicidal now to change course?

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