Sanctions threat holds little sway with North Korea

Using economic sanctions as a lever to force a truculent North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions would only harden the resolve of a leadership bent on brinkmanship, diplomats and aid workers say.

They said sanctions on oil and grain shipments to the isolated state would also have grave consequences for 23 million North Koreans already short of food.

And penalties levelled by the West alone would have little impact. Cooperation would be required from Japan, South Korea, Russia and - most critically - China, which provides the bulk of food and fuel to its longtime ally and neighbour.

So far, however, Beijing has reacted coolly even to the talk of sanctions swirling in the background of the diplomatic row between the United States and North Korea.

Washington has said it is willing to hold a dialogue with Pyongyang and talk of sanctions has receded to the background. But the situation is volatile and punitive moves, or at least threats of them, could resurface at any time.

But a Western diplomat in Beijing, who covers North Korea, said threats of sanctions were unlikely to sway erratic leader Kim Jong-Il, even if they affect UN grain rations meant for the most vulnerable.

"If it takes two million to die, it takes two million to die," he said. "It happened in 1995, it could happen again."

Famine and related disease have led to anywhere from 100,000 to several million deaths in North Korea since the mid 1990s as it descended into economic crisis after the Soviet Union's collapse marked the withdrawal of aid and subsidised trade.

Pyongyang now depends heavily on food aid to feed its people after being ravaged by economic mismanagment, several years of flooding followed by drought, and harsh winters.

Aid groups say the one million-strong North Korean army and political elite get first crack at the country's annual harvest and leave the food from international donors to the rest of the population.

That would leave the North Korean people to suffer the brunt of sanctions that cut off international food aid.

"It's a moribund economy; it has nothing, basically, so little works there," said a second diplomat in Beijing.

"It's going to hurt people who are already hurting, very vulnerable people."

Diplomats and analysts say sanctions were likely to lead only to further escalation of tensions and allow North Korea to play the victim to try and turn the situation to its advantage.

North Koreans were well aware of the hardships they face and rather than lash out at their government, they would direct their anger at the countries applying the pressure, they said.

"There's a big danger that in imposing sanctions you're only going to feed the North Korean propaganda machine and its ability to blame all of its economic problems on the United States," said Tim Savage, fellow at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Seoul's Kyungnam University.

The North Korean government, meanwhile, would respond by taking steps that increased tensions and slip further into isolation, diplomats said.

They noted that after Washington and its allies cut off fuel shipments in November, Pyongyang restarted a nuclear reactor capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium and kicked out UN inspectors.

"It was a strange way of going about, upping the ante," said the first diplomat. "They're fairly confident."

Some of that self-confidence stems from the fact that much of North Korea's economic aid comes not from the West but from longtime ally China.

"China is North Korea's life support," said a US diplomat in Seoul. In addition to food, "China provides much of the meagre amounts of fuel that North Korea is getting for its power needs".

According to CIA estimates, China supplied 38 per cent of North Korean imports in 2002, ahead of Japan at 17 per cent and South Korea's eight per cent. Top imports include petroleum, coking coal, machinery, consumer goods and grain.

China's strategic goal is a unified Korea and the departure of the 37,000 US troops now stationed in South Korea.

In the meantime, however, Beijing places a premium on stability on the Korean peninsula and has stressed the need for dialogue between Pyong-yang and Washington and for the United States to be more flexible.

Beijing is not enamoured by the prospect of a North Korea with nuclear bombs, but nor is it interested in a collapse of its neighbour which would probably send hundreds of thousands of people pouring across the border into northeastern China.

"For the Chinese that's a very dangerous situation, probably equally dangerous as the idea of a nuclear-armed North Korea," said Savage.

China, which with Russia has more clout with Pyongyang than any other country, might find itself with no influence at all if such a collapse did occur.

"It could result in American troops much closer to Chinese borders than they are now. It leaves China with the uncertainty of its ability to influence events on the Korean Peninsula in the future," Savage said.