Adamkus tipped to win Lithuanian run-off election

Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus is tipped to win a run-off election tomorrowday, riding a wave of popularity as the man credited with the ex-Soviet state's invitations to join Nato and the European Union.

"Adamkus will win," said Raimundas Lopata, director of the Institute of International Studies in Vilnius, but predicted a victory margin of less than 10 per cent over the president's rival Rolandas Paksas - a keen stunt pilot 30 years his junior.

Adamkus got 35.1 per cent of votes in the first-round ballot on December 22, while Paksas, leader of the right-wing Liberal Democrats, garnered 19.4 per cent support in the country of 3.5 million people.

Lithuania, which regained independence in 1991, was long seen as lagging economically behind its Baltic neighbours, Latvia and Estonia. But under Adamkus it has become an open, stable society with a booming economy defying a global slump.

"Adamkus is very good at representing Lithuania abroad," Vilnius Bank chief analyst Rimantas Rudzkis said. "This is the all-important task, as EU integration is crucial to our economy."

Adamkus, who is not a member of any party, enjoys wide centre-right backing and is seen as the main force behind the recent invitations to join the EU and Nato after a decade of often painful reforms.

Now 76, Adamkus spent more than 50 years in the United States before returning to his native country just before the last presidential race. He fled ahead of the Red Army in 1944.

With Lithuania's "return to Europe", he has played the international statesman and sought to build bridges with Russia and the EU.

As Lithuania's president, he oversees foreign policy and appoints the prime minister. Mainly as a result of his personal popularity, he has at times sharply influenced domestic policies.

The first round saw a turnout of only 54 per cent in an election with no burning issues.

Paksas, the former mayor of Vilnius and twice former prime minister, took a turn to the right in the pre-election run-up and won a surprise second place ahead of parliament speaker Arturas Paulauskas.

At 46, he has campaigned hard as a youthful and energetic alternative under the slogan "Vote for Change!", flitting about the country in a helicopter, and at one stop even guided a small plane under a bridge.

But his tough law-and-order approach combined with a promise to improve living conditions has gained little support from other parties and has failed to capture voters' interest.

Adamkus has hardly campaigned for re-election for another five-year term - saying he was too busy wrapping up Nato and EU talks - but has portrayed himself as an international statesman able to safeguard his country's Euro-Atlantic integration.

He is backed by almost all the main political camps. In November, he hosted US President George W. Bush who came to congratulate the Baltic States on their Nato invitations.

Paksas has said he would keep up Adamkus's good work on integration into Nato and the EU while laying greater stress on the need for a more resolute strike against crime and corruption at home, a position that seems to have hit a raw nerve.

Adamkus responded in a dramatic appeal after the first round ballot, warning against returning to Soviet-style dictatorship.

"We already had such 'order' in Lithuania, and we have escaped from it," he said, pledging to defend democracy and prevent a return to a system where law and order were imposed by totalitarian methods.