Irish EU "yes" vote likely

The Irish look set to vote "yes" this weekend on an EU enlargement treaty but an opinion poll yesterday said undecided voters could determine the outcome.

The second major opinion poll this week found an almost two-to-one "yes" margin for the Nice Treaty, which Irish voters defeated last year, with 39 per cent in favour of the treaty and 22 per cent opposed.

A poll on Sunday gave a three-to-two margin for a "yes" vote on the treaty, which the EU says is essential to bring in up to 12 new members, mostly from Central and Eastern Europe.

"We believe that Saturday's vote will decide whether or not Ireland will continue at the heart of Europe," Prime Minister Bertie Ahern said in a joint statement with Deputy Prime Minister Mary Harney two days before campaigning ends.

Debate on the treaty, which Ireland alone of current EU members must approve by referendum, has focused on issues such as the impact of Nice on Ireland's traditional military neutrality and the obligations Ireland has to let others share in the wealth that has made Ireland one of the most prosperous countries in Europe.

"Back when we joined in 1973 we were one of those 'gypsy countries,' we were really poor, we were maybe poorer than those people," said David Curley, 19, a university business student.

"These countries deserve the right to have the opportunities we've had."

The campaign has been heated and Minister of State Brian Lenihan accused anti-Nice Treaty campaigners of making unsubstantiated claims, including one that Czechs would be worse off in the EU than under communism.

He said comments by anti-treaty campaigner Anthony Coughlan in a Czech newspaper were "totally extraordinary" to anyone who remembered the Soviets putting down the Czech rebellion in 1968.

Coughlan was quoted as having told Czechs that in the EU "you will have to commit yourself to things you never had to do when you were clients of the USSR".

Top EU officials reinforced the pro-Nice side from afar. EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen rejected at a news conference in Copenhagen the Irish anti-Nice campaign claims that enlargement can go ahead without the treaty.

"The Nice Treaty is a condition for the conclusion of the enlargement negotiations," Verheugen said, referring to talks with up to 12 candidate states, mostly from Eastern Europe.

"Without the treaty, conclusion of the negotiations is not possible. Full stop," he said.

Another claim of anti-Nice forces is that Ireland would have to abandon neutrality and would be sucked into a European army.

European Commission President Romano Prodi said in Brussels that approving Nice "does not jeopardise anyone's neutrality".

The new Lansdowne Market Research poll of 1,101 voters for the Star newspaper showed most people agree, but the proportion of people who have not made up their minds remains a stubborn 31 per cent, with just three days to polling day.

"What I've been drawing attention to is that there are a lot of currently undecided people," pollster Roger Jupp said.

The key, he believed, to how fence-sitters make up their minds may well be whether they feel the treaty is mostly about enlargement, which is what the government says, or whether they feel it may infringe on Ireland's neutrality.

The government has gone out of its way to hammer home the message that Nice will not affect neutrality, a highly emotive issue in Ireland where memories of the Irish serving in British colonial armies run deep.

"If people want to vote for the policies that have brought our country so far and to ensure that we have the strongest protection ever for our neutrality we call on them to vote 'Yes' on Sunday," Ahern said in his joint appeal.

The treaty now comes with a declaration by other EU member states that Ireland cannot be forced to join European military actions. The referendum will also enshrine neutrality in the constitution.

Despite what appear to be devastating poll results for the "no" camp, anti-treaty campaigners say they are not beaten.

"It's exactly the same situation that existed prior to the first referendum with the undecideds, it's hard to know which way they're going to go," said Green Party MP Dan Boyle, who thinks "no" voters may be reluctant to say so ahead of time.

Irish EU referendum logistics

Following are key facts about the running of Ireland's Saturday referendum on the EU Nice Treaty.

How is the poll conducted? Polling stations throughout the Irish Republic's 42 electoral constituencies open from 0800 to 1900 GMT on Saturday.

There is also some voting allowed by post - for diplomats and members of defence forces working overseas, for example.

All Irish citizens over 18 and on the electoral register can vote - around 2.9 million people.

When will results be known? Results from seven constituencies where electronic voting was introduced at the country's general election in May - mainly in the capital Dublin - will be known from around midnight on Saturday. The final overall result of the poll is expected to be known some time after 1600 GMT on Sunday.

What happens then? The referendum results are published in the government's official journal on October 25. There then follows a seven-day period during which legal challenges to the result can be lodged in the Irish high court.

If the result is a 'yes' for the Nice Treaty, and there are no court challenges within seven days, a certificate is sent to the Irish president for signing and an amendment is made to Ireland's written constitution.

Why is only Ireland voting? Ireland, unlike most other European countries, requires that any changes to its written constitution be put to a national vote. Signing up to the Nice Treaty is deemed to transfer certain powers away from the Irish state, necessitating constitutional change and consequently a referendum.

What is it voting for? The Irish electorate of 2.9 million people will be asked to vote 'yes' or 'no' on a proposal to amend Article 29 of its constitution, which deals with international relations.

The proposal means adding three subsections to the article: The first of these ratifies the Nice Treaty, the second allows the government to enter into enhanced cooperation arrangements with other EU states provided it has parliamentary approval and the third inserts a clause preventing traditionally neutral Ireland from joining an EU common defence pact unless approved by a further referendum.

Previous votes: Ireland has held more than 20 referendums since its constitution was enacted in 1937. These have ranged from cutting the minimum voting age to changing divorce and abortion laws.

In 1972, a referendum was held to allow Ireland to join the the then European Economic Community, forerunner of the EU. This was followed by votes on ratification of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 and the Amsterdam Treaty in 1998.

In a separate referendum in 1998, Ireland voted overwhelmingly to remove a territorial claim to British-ruled Northern Ireland, paving the way for the Good Friday peace deal.