EU faces political minefield to enlargement

The European Union is entering a political minefield between now and mid-December on the road to enlarging the 15-nation bloc into eastern Europe.

Most Brussels officials are convinced accession talks will be concluded on time with up to 10 mainly ex-communist east European and Mediterranean countries at a summit in Copenhagen on December 12-13, because no one will dare block expansion.

At a weekend meeting in Elsinore, Denmark, EU foreign ministers reaffirmed their determination to meet the deadline.

But member states and candidate countries have now to pick their way around several landmines that could blow enlargement off track, at least for a time.

Key decisions set to redraw the map of post-Cold War Europe will include a further expansion of Nato, a last-ditch bid to settle the Cyprus problem, and a solution for Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave soon to become locked inside EU territory.

Diplomats say the biggest hurdle is Ireland's referendum - expected in October - on the Nice treaty, negotiated in 2000 to reform EU institutions in preparation for enlargement.

A second Irish "no" after last year's shock rejection on a low turnout would almost certainly delay expansion.

The European Commission says it has no "plan B" if Ireland sinks Nice, although scenarios are being floated to try to limit the damage by incorporating institutional changes essential for enlargement into the accession treaty.

Above all, a defeat in Ireland would be a huge blow to the EU's morale, suggesting that European integration has lost the confidence of citizens.

A flurry of elections in Slovakia, Germany and Turkey will also weigh on the final phase of the enlargement negotiations.

Victory for former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar and his nationalist party in Slovakia's September 20-21 poll would bar Bratislava's road to Nato and probably also to EU membership. Political analysts regard such an outcome as unlikely.

If Meciar's men stay in opposition, there seems little doubt that Nato will agree at a November summit in Prague to admit seven new members - Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania.

That would be an important consolation prize for the latter two states, which will miss the first wave of EU enlargement.

The main electoral spotlight will be on the September 22 national vote in Germany, the biggest and wealthiest EU state.

Crucial decisions on enlargement funding, the terms to offer candidates and the future of EU farm subisidies have been deferred until Berlin has a new government.

"A triumphant end to negotiations in December 2002 is still possible, but the EU's leaders will have to find a solution to the agriculture question within a very tight timetable after the German election," said Heather Grabbe, research director at the London-based Centre for European Reform.

The issues pit Germany, keen to curb its net contribution to the EU budget, against its historic partner in European integration, France, determined to protect its farmers, the main beneficiaries of the Common Agricultural Policy.

Most EU states oppose any early radical reform of the CAP, although Britain, the Netherlands and Sweden back Berlin.

EU officials say they expect Germany to blink first, whoever wins the election, and to sign the cheque to fund enlargement.

Current EU president Denmark said it hoped to broker a deal on budgetary issues at a Brussels summit in late October.

But Grabbe said one major risk was that the candidates would be offered such miserly terms, amid such acrimonious wrangling, that it would sour the atmosphere when they join in 2004, turning eastern Europeans into embittered Eurosceptics.

The European Commission wants to give farmers in new member states just 25 per cent of the direct payments that existing EU farms receive, building up to 100 per cent over a decade.

The candidates demand more. The CAP reformers want to avoid putting east European farmers on the drip-feed of EU cash as a prelude to phasing out the payments completely.

Turkey's November 3 election may help determine whether that mainly Muslim Middle Eastern nation of 68 million citizens draws closer to the EU or ends up on a confrontation course.

Without Ankara's cooperation, there is little prospect of a political settlement in Cyprus before the east Mediterranean island completes accession talks in December, raising the prospect of the EU importing the problem.

Turkey has threatened to annex northern Cyprus, which it has occupied since invading in 1974 in reaction to a coup by Greek nationalists allied with the then-ruling junta in Athens, if the EU admits a divided island.

That could trigger a crisis and doom Ankara's own EU bid, which received a boost last month when parliament approved a package of reforms abolishing the death penalty and granting language rights for Kurds in broadcasting and education.

The EU also needs to find a solution to the problem of how residents of Kaliningrad, feared in the West as a hotbed of crime, human trafficking, smuggling and disease, will be able to cross future EU members Lithuania and Poland after enlargement.

Moscow has angrily rejected EU demands that they require visas, saying that would violate Russian sovereignty. The EU has rejected Russian proposals for a land corridor or sealed trains.