North Korea should be "serious" about security
North Korea's inspiration in this week's talks with the South was a determination to keep up the flow of financial aid from Seoul, but it must cooperate more on security to make greater progress, analysts said yesterday. After months of diplomatic...
North Korea's inspiration in this week's talks with the South was a determination to keep up the flow of financial aid from Seoul, but it must cooperate more on security to make greater progress, analysts said yesterday.
After months of diplomatic hiatus on the divided peninsula, the two Koreas have agreed to revive economic cooperation, a possibly crucial point for Pyongyang as it embarks on tentative, piecemeal changes to its heavily centralised communist system.
But the bitter rivals failed to set a date for military talks, seen by Seoul as crucial to a full-fledged resumption of dialogue.
"One of the real keys is the military dialogue," said Ralph Cossa, executive director of a Hawaii-based Pacific Forum think-tank.
"When and if the North finally gets serious about the security dialogue, as opposed to being serious about getting the South's assistance, I think that would be a major victory for the South."
Wrapping up three days of tense high-level negotiations in Seoul, the South said the Koreas had broadly agreed on Wednesday to set a date for military talks at an inter-Korean economic meeting later this month and to arrange brief reunions for families torn apart by the 1950-53 Korean War.
But the North's interpretation of the military talks deal implies that it needs its generals' approval before proceeding.
Seoul National University's Paik Jin-hyun said Pyongyang was particularly interested in keeping revenues flowing from inter-Korean tourism projects involving the North's scenic Mount Kumgang resort, a symbol of South Korean President Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine Policy" of engaging the North.
"The North thinks coming to the negotiation table is by itself a great benefit for the South. The North got all they wanted but South Korea is not 100 per cent happy," said Paik. "One thing for sure, all the North wants is financial assistance."
The revival of military talks is important for South Korea because it is a prerequisite for the deeply symbolic construction of an inter-Korean railway piercing one of the world's most dangerous, most fortified border zones.
"But of course, the talks would create an impression among South Koreans that something is going on," Paik added.
The agriculture ministry said on Wednesday that Seoul was considering going ahead with a shipment of 300,000 tonnes of rice to the North after withdrawing the offer in June, and might even increase the offer. Aid agencies say many thousands of people there are malnourished and the economy is in tatters.
"Given the history of failed starts, what will be really important here is if there is the necessary follow-through to the (latest) talks, particularly on the North Korean side to withhold military meetings," said the Pacific Forum's Cossa.
After a series of setbacks in inter-Korean ties, further strained after a June 29 naval clash in the Yellow Sea, Seoul took a much harder line towards aid to the North.
"The North may have finally realised that... the window of opportunity is rapidly closing in this regard," said Cossa.
The United States and Japan, preoccupied by what they see as North Korea's aim to develop weapons of mass destruction, were closely examining the outcome of this week's talks for clues on Pyongyang's latest diplomatic moves and tentative economic reforms.
Japanese and North Korean officials are due to hold talks later this month. Pyongyang has invited the United States to follow through on an offer to open a dialogue, but Washington has yet to set a date. Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is due to visit Russia this month.
"The North Koreans seem to go out of their way to help make the case against themselves, such as in the June naval accident," said Cossa, explaining Pyongyang's at times heavy-handed tactics.
"But as long as there is some movement with North and South, that will see some movement with the US and North as well.".