China's military top brass stand by for reshuffle

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is standing by for a sweeping reshuffle of China's leadership that could herald a shift in its defence policy and civil-military relations, defence sources said yesterday.

But as China's leaders head for their annual conclave at the Beidaihe beach resort, a question mark hangs over whether Communist Party chief and President Jiang Zemin will retain his position as head of the armed forces.

Jiang, chairman of the 11-man Central Military Commission (CMC), is expected to start retiring from official posts with other leaders at a five-yearly party congress in September, making way for a new generation under Hu Jintao, now vice president.

Six members of the CMC, which commands the 2.5 million-strong PLA, are over 70 and could also retire at the congress.

They include China's top military officer Zhang Wannian, 73, and Defence Minister Chi Haotian, 73, who are CMC vice chairmen and the only two uniformed members of the politburo.

Personnel changes have already begun in the PLA's lower ranks and new appointments are expected at the top of its four key departments - general staff, logistics, politics and armaments - at the congress.

That could make way for a new generation of well-educated generals with greater exposure to the West and understanding of high-technology warfare than the current PLA leadership, many of whom fought in the 1950-53 Korean War.

It could also help institutionalise the relationship between the party and military, often the source of factional infighting.

"There might be some fairly dramatic stuff that could indicate a generation jump," said one foreign defence source in Beijing. "The PLA has to change, they are behind the curve. The leaders are too old, too sick."

But Jiang, 75, is known to want to keep his CMC post to retain power from "behind the curtain", as did his predecessor Deng Xiaoping.

Some top generals, many appointed by Jiang, back the idea so they too can keep their CMC positions and maintain the military's influence on decisions about military spending and Taiwan policy, analysts say.

On Monday, state media said General Zhang had ordered the whole PLA to obey Jiang and study his political theories in a robust endorsement of his leadership.

"I personally believe Jiang has a good chance of staying on for a while longer," said one top Asian defence analyst, who declined to be identified. "There is political precedence."

Although Hu has been CMC vice chairman since 1999, he lacks military experience and connections and would have to make concessions to generals to buy their support, some analysts say.

"He has absolutely no standing in the army so he will have to start from scratch," said Ellis Joffe, professor of China studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

"The army will have a lot of leverage in relation to him which means more appropriation, modernisation and autonomy."

Jiang also had no military experience when he became CMC chief in 1989, but purged potential rivals and won the PLA's loyalty by granting them budget rises and a say in policy-making on security issues.

Others say it would be untenable for Jiang to remain CMC chief, with Hu as his deputy, after Hu takes over as party chief.

"For him to stay on would undermine and destroy the intra-party norms that he has helped to create," said James Mulvenon, China analyst at the Rand Corp in the United States.

Mulvenon and others say Hu has established enough military credentials through his role in crushing independence protests in Tibet in the late 1980s and supervising the PLA's withdrawal from its business empire.

"Hu Jintao fits the profile fairly well and should receive the support of the PLA leaders," Nan Li, professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati, wrote in a recent paper.

One face-saving option would be for Jiang to stay on as head of the CMC but to retire after two or three years, as Deng did.

But the matter is further complicated by talk of plans to set up a National Security Council, possibly headed by Jiang, to improve coordination between military and civilian leaders which was shown to be wanting in the US spy plane crisis last year.

If Jiang does give up the CMC chairmanship, his protege Zeng Qinghong, a candidate for vice president, is likely to become CMC vice chairman to protect his interests, analysts say.

Among candidates for the other two vice chairmanships are chief of general staff Fu Quanyou, 71, and Cao Gangchuan, 66, head of the armaments department, analysts say.

Guo Boxiong, 60, is also a contender, but may be ruled out by ill health, they say.