Political struggle in Myanmar now waged with smiles

The last time Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi tried to travel from Yangon to Mandalay, the ruling junta sent armed police to block her, jailed dozens of her supporters and locked her up in house arrest.

The result - an international outcry that worsened Myanmar's isolation and pushed its tottering economy closer to collapse.

Last week, following her release from 19 months in house arrest, the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize winner tried once again to travel to Myanmar's second city.

The junta's response underlined it has suspended efforts to persecute the pro-democracy leader and settled on a new tactic - being nice to her.

In stark contrast to the events of September 2000, Suu Kyi and her entourage were allowed to travel freely for more than a week on a leisurely trip to Mandalay and back, stopping at several smaller towns and even accepting government invitations to visit a new bridge and a hydroelectric plant.

This time there was no international condemnation of the junta, no threats to step up sanctions which analysts say are the strongest weapon Suu Kyi has in her dealings with the military.

By allowing Suu Kyi, 57, to travel freely, the junta has improved its image, analysts say, and at little cost. Her trip may have raised the morale of some of her supporters but it hardly shook the foundations of the junta's grip on power.

"The government seems to have realised that the worse they treat her and the democracy movement, the more pressure and problems they will face," said a Western diplomat in Yangon.

Diplomats say the junta seems to have decided that Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) is no longer a major threat to its iron rule of Myanmar.

The party, which won Myanmar's last election in 1990 but has never been allowed to govern, has limited resources and the possibility of any mass uprising seems remote, analysts say.

Many former NLD members resigned after years of persecution, and most are elderly.

International sanctions are more pressing - the country's economy has been moribund for decades but recent years have seen a worsening downward spiral of hyperinflation, currency collapse, trade deficits and shortages of key commodities.

The junta is desperate to improve its international standing, mainly to get sanctions lifted, analysts say. It wants to give the impression it is serious about reaching an accommodation with Suu Kyi, even though many doubt whether it will ever allow real reform.

The government began confidential talks with Suu Kyi in October 2000, but they have yet to go beyond "confidence building", officials say.

The junta, which says moving too fast towards democracy could unleash anarchy, has not bothered to hold talks with Suu Kyi since her release from house arrest on May 6.

So far, Suu Kyi has matched the junta's conciliatory tone. She has agreed not to resume the weekly anti-government speeches she used to hold at her residence and seems to be avoiding angering or embarrassing the government.

Her visits to government construction projects during her trip to Mandalay were unprecedented.

"It was more than a test of her freedom of movement. It was a test of the mutual confidence between Suu Kyi and the government, and they showed understanding and trust towards each other," said a veteran politician in Yangon.

"She did not over-exploit her popularity among the people, and on the other hand the military showed it can cooperate with her by inviting her to their project sites."

But behind the public show of reconciliation, analysts say, the two sides are far apart and agreement seems unlikely.

Many doubt the junta has any real intention of allowing a democratic government to take power.

Myanmar is by no means the only dictatorial government in Asia, but it has been singled out for sanctions and criticism because of its treatment of Suu Kyi and her party.

Suu Kyi faces the dilemma that she is most dangerous to the junta when she is being persecuted, as this keeps international attention on Myanmar and ensures sanctions stay in place.

Trips like this month's visit to Mandalay are useful in drumming up support but analysts say the NLD poses no serious challenge to the junta's rule of Myanmar.

Suu Kyi has demanded substantive political negotiations before she reconsiders her influential position on sanctions.

Sooner or later, if the government fails to talk to her, she is likely to harden her stance and resume criticism of the junta.

Suu Kyi and her party may already have survived years of persecution by the junta, but their challenge now is to survive the threat of simply being ignored.