Fears of new violence as Macedonia vote nears

Macedonia's legislators have set the stage for a general election that forms part of the peace process after last year's armed conflict. But Western diplomats and analysts fear the vote itself could trigger fresh violence.

This time they are less worried about clashes between the Macedonian majority and the ethnic Albanian minority. Their concern is intimidation and violence within each community as Macedonian and Albanian parties battle for votes.

Parliament cleared the way last week for the elections by passing a package of laws promised in a Western-backed peace accord which grant more rights to the former Yugoslav republic's Albanians.

The accord foresees legislative reforms followed by an early election to begin a new era. Legislators have not stuck to the timetable so the election is expected in September, months later than planned but still ahead of the regular date in November.

The peace deal was signed last August after a six-month ethnic conflict between Macedonians and Albanians that brought the country to the brink of all-out civil war.

But concerns of more violence remain - despite new electoral laws designed to limit hostilities and the possibility of vote-rigging - and international teams of monitors are being readied ahead of the poll.

"Violence is almost certain," one Western diplomat said. "For some political parties it might well be used as a main tactic to win the elections."

The main electoral struggle in the majority Macedonian community will be between old rivals, Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski's VMRO-DPMNE party and the opposition Social Democratic Union (SDSM).

Both parties have strong grassroots support but very different strategies for winning over floating voters.

Analysts say Georgievski is more likely to use nationalist rhetoric, while the SDSM is more likely to highlight the poor state of the economy.

The situation is similar in the Albanian community, where the main battle is expected to be between the ruling Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA) and the new Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), formed and led by former guerrillas.

The ex-rebels have already sent signals that they plan to concentrate on dissatisfaction with the economy and corruption while the DPA seems more interested in patriotism.

As voters in Macedonia generally choose a party representing their own ethnic group, the battle in this election is not between Macedonians and Albanians but inside each community.

Analysts and diplomats fear the competition for votes will spill over into violence, just as they are trying to build a climate of peace and stability across the country.

"The primary concern is of intra-ethnic violence," said Edward Joseph, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group (ICG) think-tank.

"Because the competition is within the same ethnic groups, so the violence is more likely to be among each ethnic group."

Analysts expect more outright violence within the Albanian community, while on the Macedonian side at least intimidation involving the threat of violence.

They say the aim of activists using violence and intimidation will be to make the turnout as low as possible so the half empty ballot boxes could be stuffed with fake votes.

Flawed elections are nothing new for Macedonia. Almost all elections since the republic's independence 10 years ago have been in some way faulty and marred by violence.

The international community, through the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Union, are preparing large monitoring missions for the polls.

Concerns about the election were highlighted this week when European Union foreign ministers felt the need to stress an expectation that all parties in Macedonia "would refrain from provocations and intimidation" during the upcoming campaign.

But some say that the international community should take a tougher stance.

"We have to send a clear message that any party that intimidates, cheats and uses violence to obtain their electoral objectives will have no international support," Joseph said.