US plays down Iran problem ahead of Russia summit
To hear President George W. Bush tell it, Iran is a dangerous adversary, part of an "axis of evil" that is developing weapons of mass destruction, aiding terrorists and sabotaging Middle East peace. Russia, in the long-held US view, is a major supplier...
To hear President George W. Bush tell it, Iran is a dangerous adversary, part of an "axis of evil" that is developing weapons of mass destruction, aiding terrorists and sabotaging Middle East peace.
Russia, in the long-held US view, is a major supplier to Iran, providing vital assistance to Tehran`s nuclear and ballistic missile programme as well as conventional arms.
But ahead of next week`s summit in Moscow, Bush advisers have played down any Russia-Iran link, focusing instead on America`s evolving new relationship with its former Cold War enemy.
Speaking at the Heritage Foundation, Undersecretary of State John Bolton, a leading administration hard-liner, warned at length of threats from Iran and other "rogue states".
He only voiced concerns about Russia`s connection with Tehran when pressed by a questioner in the audience.
Republican hawk Richard Perle, an influential Pentagon adviser, discussed the summit arms agenda at the Council on Foreign Relations, addressing the Russia-Iran tie only at the moderator`s urging.
Given that US intelligence believes Russia`s cash-strapped defence, biotechnology and nuclear industries continue to export weapons and technical know-how to Iran and other countries, is Bush and his team going soft on Russia?
US officials insist the answer is no, and they point to new sanctions imposed last week on Chinese, Armenian and Moldovan entities accused of abetting Iran`s arms programme.
But there are signs of new thinking that would seek to use economic incentives instead of coercion to persuade Moscow to cease proliferation the US considers threatening.
Senior US officials have told Reuters the administration might acquiesce in Russian sales of conventional weapons sales - excluding advanced equipment like fighter jets - to Iran if Moscow ended nuclear weapons cooperation with Tehran.
Similarly, the administration may be able to accept continued Russian work on Iran`s Bushehr civilian nuclear power plant "if Bushehr is truly divorced from any connection with the nuclear weapons programme," said one senior official.
"There may be ways of talking about this, but right now the Russians are denying that they are involved in the Iranian nuclear weapons programme and we know they are," he said.
"If they are denying what we know, what kind of deal do you ever expect to get that we would have confidence in? I think that question answers itself."
Support for an economic remedy also came from Perle, who said Russia should be forgiven its Soviet-era debt as a way of persuading it to end nuclear cooperation with Iran.
Such problems "can and should be ironed out, and in doing so I think we need to pay attention to Russia`s economic situation," he said.
Russia`s $42 billion Soviet-era debt to Western lenders is one of the Cold War`s last unsettled financial problems.
It may be some time before an economic-oriented approach is offered formally as a US proposal, officials say.
A major stumbling block is the fact that Russian officials continue to deny they are aiding Iran`s weapons programmes, despite several years of US pressure and arguments Russia is more at risk from a nuclear-capable Iran than the US.
The issue of Iran is likely to be raised at Bush`s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But apart from a general pledge to cooperate in halting the spread of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons as part of a new strategic framework accord, there is little expectation of an immediate breakthrough ending Russia`s ties to Iran.
At the last US-Russia summit, the two sides resolved a dispute over missile defences and at next week`s summit they will sign a treaty slashing strategic nuclear arms.
"So if it takes another summit or two to get a real macro understanding on proliferation, it`s not going to bother me that much (as Iran`s nuclear and missile programme) doesn`t threaten us immediately," a senior US official said.
The CIA predicts it will be "late this decade" before Iran can produce a nuclear weapon of its own, although outside help will speed that process.
Bush himself stressed an urgency in dealing with so-called axis of evil states Iran, Iraq and North Korea because their weapons of mass destruction programmes could provide the means for an even more catastrophic assault by extremists following the September 11 attacks on the United States.
Lee Feinstein, a former Clinton administration official, faulted Bush for de-emphasising the Russia-Iran connection.
In light of post-September 11 concerns about weapons falling into the wrong hands, "the main emphasis ought to be on proliferation and on securing Russian nuclear weapons and materials," he told Reuters.
The new Russia-Nato accord and the US-Russia treaty slashing nuclear arms are positive but "will be measured in some way by whether Putin clamps down on Iran," he said.