Double or nothing

A secret Nationalist poll leaked in the Labour press gives the Greens four per cent in the next elections. Labour crowed over the fact that the poll gave it a head start over its archrivals. The real news was that it`s the Greens that will make the difference.

It is ironic that all the cheating that our rivals have contrived to keep us out of parliament has not served to eliminate us. We go from strength to strength regardless. It is ironic that their cheating has increased their peril.

The 1987 changes in the constitution were made in the blinkered dualist frame of mind that assumed that the country was destined to be split down the middle for all time. The proportional representation system was cobbled to eliminate the effect of gerrymandering, real or imagined: whichever of two parties gained an absolute majority would be assured of more seats in parliament. They thought the crisis had been managed.

How could they guess that by 1992 there would be a third contestant which would make them run the risk of both going under the fatal 50 per cent mark? Their 50 per cent plus one vote system wasn`t foolproof. Alternattiva Demokratika, with 1.7 per cent of the vote, came within a whisper of wrecking their truce.

An all-party commission discussed election system changes once more. It came close to establishing a five per cent threshold and allowing something beyond minimum pluralism. It came close but balked at the consequences of such a commitment to democratic values.

Instead the constitution was cobbled once more and the 50 per cent plus one vote system gained another twist: if only candidates from two parties are elected, the party having most votes would have most seats also if it did not make the 50 per cent mark.

If the result was 20 per cent MLP, 21 per cent PN, 39 per cent AD? With no AD candidates elected, our rivals would breathe easy because justice would be done between them. AD`s 39 per cent ? Too bad. What a system!

The Nationalist poll makes it more likely that the result will be something like 47 per cent, 49 per cent four per cent. Neither of our rivals would have a clear majority but one of them would govern without asking for our support: a minority government to carry the country into the EU or to face the consequences of staying out.

There is another scenario: The Green Party`s vote averages four per cent but varies widely over the 13 electoral districts from one per cent to eight per cent. It`s highly probable. We polled 9.3 per cent in Pembroke in local council elections. Where we make the effort to match our rivals` machinery, we get results, also without their media empires.

With such a level of first count votes, a Green candidate is in the running to get elected: second, third and later preference votes could easily elect such a candidate. At that point our rivals could bitterly regret their shortsightedness. None of their constitutional cobbling would work.

If one of them has proportionately more votes than seats, too bad. Unless one of them has more seats than both its rivals combined, neither can form a government without AD support. We will give our support to the party best able to implement our electoral platform. At this time we are offered no choice but to support the Nationalist Party because of the EU membership issue. We cannot share the Labour Party`s trip into the darkness.

It is ironic that a party denied representation for so many years may come to decide the fate of the country at such a historic moment. It is a huge responsibility, a responsibility we can handle well.

There is another scenario: AD does not gain a single seat. Labour gains a relative majority. The EU membership option is closed for good. Parliamentary representation for AD has come to be a do or die option for the country. It is no longer a matter on which the supporters of other parties can turn their back in safety. If they value the opportunity of EU membership for Malta, getting AD into parliament has become crucial.

There is more at stake than fairness, democracy and justice to the 15,000 people who support AD. If the Greens don`t make it this time, the whole EU project goes up in smoke. People who vote Yes in the EU referendum would have to secure a victory by voting Green first, second and third. A Nationalist blockvote would be disastrous for the Yes camp. Three local council elections where such blockvotes backfired are the quantifiable proof.

It could happen still. Our rivals are not blessed with magnanimity and selflessness. Their campaigns are run on the ground by individual candidates looking for their own survival, common or national causes come second. It`s up to the Greens to make the difference.

Since 1998 we have come a long way from 1.2 per cent. We averaged 5.56 per cent in the last local council elections. In the polls we have doubled our support nationwide every six months since 1999. All we need to do is to double once more in a handful of districts. A few hundred people are going to have to bear a huge responsibility with us. We shall ask them to vote for themselves and for their country. They will have to ask themselves whether they want to be the handful who secured EU membership or those who let it slip from their grasp. We are within a whisper of saving the country. Will the country save itself?